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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 4/3 (240 comments)

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  •  Not a Base (6+ / 0-)

    Cutler does not have a solid base in the state. He surged in the last two weeks of the campaign because of voters who didn't support LePage but couldn't bring themselves to support Mitchell either.  Just look at RCP's polling aggregate for the last month and a half of the campaign. Just 12 days before the election, Cutler was barely breaking 14%. That does not indicate a strong base of support. The problem was that, according to PPP's October 28 poll, Mitchell had 31-56 favorables, and Cutler had 46-33 favorables. Mitchell was not popular at all. Cutler advertised himself as a more electable alternative to Democrats in the home stretch, and it nearly worked.

    However, I think this success is less indicative of support for Cutler and more indicative of disappointment in Mitchell, and I think that polling trend proves this seeing as Cutler's growth came almost entirely at the expense of Mitchell. PPP's recent poll on January 22 shows Michaud as having 58-23 favorables. Michaud has broad bipartisan support, whereas Mitchell could barely get the support of Democrats. If Michaud runs, Cutler will be a very weak third wheel in the race if he doesn't pull out at some point all together.

    The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-4); Economic Left/Right: -7.12; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.44

    by AndySonSon on Wed Apr 03, 2013 at 04:53:10 PM PDT

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