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View Diary: Peak oil and peak silliness (111 comments)

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  •  News flash: Oil doesn't bubble out of the ground (0+ / 0-)

    anymore.

    You can't just walk up and fill your bucket like you could a hundred years ago.

    Oil has been getting harder to extract for a century. And yet we keep extracting more each year.

    You doom sayers don't have a leg to stand on.

    Things are the same as they ever were.

    •  Ho Hum... (0+ / 0-)

      Yet another head-in-sander.

      Global production has been largely flat--fluctuations within a few percent, and certainly no monotonic upward trend--since 2005.  

      Glad to see you're hip to the basic premise of peak oil, though--that oil is in fact getting more difficult to extract.  A few numbers? A century ago, EROEI was roughly 100-to-1. Now it's roughly 10-to-1.  Energy-intensive oil types like tar sands are more like 3 or 4-to-1.  In other words, overall production only tells part of the story, when much of that production is effectively reinvested immediately just to keep up production. There isn't going to be some miraculous reversal of this tred.

      If you haven't paid any attention to reports on the economics of shale oil and shale gas, you should. They're not nearly as profitable as initially assumed.  

      The fact that oil prices have quadrupled or quintupled in the last ten years, while production has risen perhaps ten percent, should be a clue to you. We are relying increasingly on coal again, because there is not enough oil supply worldwide to feed our economic engines--this should be another clue.  The cycles of recovery, oil price spike, and renewed recession of the past several years should be a third.

      •  If we produce ever more oil, then peak oil is bunk (0+ / 0-)

        Here is the history of US oil production from EIA:

        See how it has been increasing since the economy bottomed out? See how it has been increasing at ever greater rates?

        All that I could find on world oil production is a table for 2007 to 2012:

        72,873.0      73,698.5      72,306.8      74,073.7      74,143.8      75,553.1

        What does it matter what the return on investment is as long as we keep producing more and more oil?

        Profit is profit. The oil companies are the most profitable industry in the history of mankind.

        You might theorize that it is unsustainable, but you can't back that up with any evidence. If you find a hundred dollar bill lying on the ground, but you had to pay ninety dollars to pick it up, you still have ten dollars of free money! Don't you think that you are going to go back tomorrow for another ten bucks?

        Oil prices and oil production are two separate things. Oil production changes very slowly while oil prices can change in a second. The fact that Goldman Sachs owns more oil contracts than the producers or consumers of oil tells me that oil prices are not a good indicator of oil supply.

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