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View Diary: A Train Ride for Kim Jong-un (25 comments)

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  •  China does not want the war , (6+ / 0-)

    China is the one selling oil to NK .
    Its said that 90% of NKs oil comes from China .
    For NK to have a hope they need the oil .
    Without the oil their war will go very badly for them .

    China wants NK to go on being NK ,
    they don't want lose NK to the west .

    China knows that NK can't save themselves if they attack SK a big way .
    China does not want a hot war with the U.S.

    China can stop the flow of oil if NK does things that China does not like .

    Drop the name-calling MB 2/4/11 + Please try to use ratings properly! Kos 9/9/11

    by indycam on Wed Apr 03, 2013 at 12:45:08 PM PDT

    •  The current problem is the high possibility (5+ / 0-)

      of an accidental trigger of actual shooting. The North Korean guards on the DMZ are well known for their bellicose nasty attitudes and from time to time they have actually randomly fired their rifles at the South side of the DMZ. In a continuing tense standoff situation I don't think these guys can keep their cool, and could easily create the kind of incident that would quickly spin ou tof control.

    •  That said (and it's right on), (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      China does not have a problem with NK keeping SK off balance. SK is a world manufacturing power on the rise and that challenges China's markets. Diverting SK's attention and development to defense, helps China's export sector, no?
      As the diarist points out, though, all the major players are new to the jobs and things could easily spiral out of control.
      If it was up to me, I would have scrapped the war games and worked to de-escalate the sabre-rattling, tried to open one on one talks with NK to see if there was some confidence building measures that we could agree on with the new guy.
      But then, The State Department would never hire me so what do I know.

      If I ran this circus, things would be DIFFERENT!

      by CwV on Wed Apr 03, 2013 at 01:16:11 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  They have to talk with old hands . (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        CwV, hnichols

        Drop the name-calling MB 2/4/11 + Please try to use ratings properly! Kos 9/9/11

        by indycam on Wed Apr 03, 2013 at 01:17:26 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I agree with you (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        CwV, Creosote

        The solution to NKs problem is not isolation forever. It's a situtaion that requires working out. Unfortunately with the changes in political leaders here in the US, we never maintain a continuous policy except more and more isolation. The reason that Kim Jong ll's oldest son did not follow him as the leader of the North was because he got caught sneaking into Japan several years back because he wanted to go to Disneyland. When the news broke it was a huge embarrassment on NK, so he was by passed for Kim Jung-un. The success of that recently closed trade center, which provided day work for NK people who worked for SK industries proves that the North is suffering badly from the isolation. The US needs a program to bring NK back into the world community but it will be a slow process and require multiple Congresses and Presidents and lots of time to accomplish it.

      •  South Korea vs. China (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Mortifyd, Creosote

        The difference in manufacturing between SK and Ch. is that South Korea creates intellectually a lot of what they export. China, on the other hand, builds to specification most of what they export. China is very good at "reverse engineering" consumer product knockoffs.
        The tell-tale is that SK pays (give or take) reasonable wages to their factory workers. China must build fences around their plants and erect anti-suicide nets on the buildings. And dormitories, too.

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