Skip to main content

View Diary: The Nuclear Regulatory Commission and Fukishima (154 comments)

Comment Preferences

    •  No actually (0+ / 0-)

      Read the article again.  What he says is totally consistent with what I said.   The reduction in nuclear contributed to the uptick in coal.  So did other things.  Note also, the same pattern occurred in Japan.  Yes it still is lower than 1990 or 2005.   But it is still an uptick in how much is being used.  

      Hay hombres que luchan un dia, y son buenos Hay otros que luchan un año, y son mejores Hay quienes luchan muchos años, y son muy buenos. Pero hay los que luchan toda la vida. Esos son los imprescindibles.

      by Mindful Nature on Fri Apr 05, 2013 at 06:34:49 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  you didnt read the conclusion (0+ / 0-)

        or care to.
        Conclusion: Energiewende
        While the United States and Britain re-arrange the deck chairs on the Titanic by shifting from coal to gas, the Germans are doing exactly what they have said that they would do: transition off of nuclear power, and fossil fuels, and move to renewables. If there is a one-year exception to the downward trend in the use of coal or any other non-renewable energy source along the way, this is, as K.F. Lenz puts it, “statistical noise”.

        The great thing about the Future is it's going to happen despite what you may think about it, or be told to think about it.

        •  Lenz is dead wrong (0+ / 0-)

          is not noise.  It is not random variation, but derives from well understood market forces.  We know perfectly well what is driving the uptick, and it isn't going to just reverse itself this year magically.

          I notices you still maintain your snotty middle school style attitude though towards those who disagree with you.

          Please, go run along and play.

          Hay hombres que luchan un dia, y son buenos Hay otros que luchan un año, y son mejores Hay quienes luchan muchos años, y son muy buenos. Pero hay los que luchan toda la vida. Esos son los imprescindibles.

          by Mindful Nature on Fri Apr 05, 2013 at 09:49:39 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  you are just dead wrong (0+ / 0-)

            Gipe has 20 years of German energy production
            charted.

            http://www.wind-works.org/...

            you are howling about an uptick in soft coal burning that is less then 1990, and 2001. Every 3 years, a maintenance cycle goes off in Hard coal plants and a soft coal plant is brought online to  cover for it.  

            You can see it in the data.

            Why was soft coal production so high in 90?  

            •  I see (0+ / 0-)

              so the increase in coal was just random whim on the part of energy companies and had nothing to do with the decrease in nuclear power and gas generation and the increase in economic activity.  It was just purely "statistical noise" that we can ignore.  

              1990 is neither informative or relevant to what is moving energy production today and doesn't tell you a lot about what is going to happen going forward.  I suppose it is possible that as more nuclear goes offline and the economy recovers that gas and coal also all decrease together.  Does that really seem likely to you?

              Hay hombres que luchan un dia, y son buenos Hay otros que luchan un año, y son mejores Hay quienes luchan muchos años, y son muy buenos. Pero hay los que luchan toda la vida. Esos son los imprescindibles.

              by Mindful Nature on Fri Apr 05, 2013 at 11:18:02 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  electricity demand disconnecting from GDP (0+ / 0-)

                http://calhounpowerline.com/...

                it's a pity you don't keep up with the trades.

                It's almost like you went to school a long time ago
                and decided to stop learning.

                http://www.eia.gov/...

                A country's economy and its energy use, particularly electricity use, are linked. Short-term changes in electricity use are often positively correlated with changes in economic output (measured by gross domestic product (GDP)). However, the underlying long-term trends in the two indicators may differ. All else equal, a growing economy leads to greater energy and electricity use. However, in developed countries like the United States, the relationship has been changing for some time, as economic growth now outpaces electricity growth.

                •  You (0+ / 0-)

                  Really don't understand what you post, do you?  Because if you did, you wouldn't post something that I already pointed out several posts ago and you would recognize the difference in time scales.  Yes, economies get more energy efficient, especially when tere is political will ( you ought to look at California's numbers.  We have had a slower energy growth relative to GDP to the point where some states use four times the energy perGDP compared to us.  This is called efficiency.

                  I think you've demonstrated yourself to be too semi literate to be worth trying to discuss with. Go along and peddle your stupid conspiracies and held truths to someone who doesn't know any better

                  Hay hombres que luchan un dia, y son buenos Hay otros que luchan un año, y son mejores Hay quienes luchan muchos años, y son muy buenos. Pero hay los que luchan toda la vida. Esos son los imprescindibles.

                  by Mindful Nature on Fri Apr 05, 2013 at 04:25:15 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

    •  And a further question (0+ / 0-)

      There is a limit to how much solar and wind can provide (namely still nights).

      What deployable existing technology  do we use for the "backup power" during those times between now and 2030?

      Hay hombres que luchan un dia, y son buenos Hay otros que luchan un año, y son mejores Hay quienes luchan muchos años, y son muy buenos. Pero hay los que luchan toda la vida. Esos son los imprescindibles.

      by Mindful Nature on Fri Apr 05, 2013 at 07:12:28 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  wind usually has a nice night time availability (0+ / 0-)

        we need a smart grid, we need to tie the grid operations
        so we can move Hydro North to South, and,
        we need to work on lots of small storage options.

        It's an investment,  if the Feds won't make it,
        i suspect the states may well.  California and NY
        may well push hard

        I suspect the south will stay backward much longer,
        but Deutsche Bank says we hit Grid parity in 2014,
        and after that, there will be big shifts.

        •  So (0+ / 0-)

          When do you expect that windpower capacity to be installed?

          Right now, Germany has around 31 GW installed capacity, which with a capacity factor of around 20%, means that on average (very back of the envelope, I admit) Germany likely needs to increase its wind power by a factor of 5 or so just to deliver that kind of power.  Considering that the kind of regional integration typically considered for back up power usually means actual installed capacity in excess of nominally required capacity, Germany may well be unable to meet its full overnight needs until installed capacity is considerably more than that.

          If the rate of installation is comparable to what it is now, that's 3GW a year, which means a long wait to get to that point.  Even if it shoots through the rough, it is still like to take 15 years to get there.

          So, what provides your power at 3am until then?

          Hay hombres que luchan un dia, y son buenos Hay otros que luchan un año, y son mejores Hay quienes luchan muchos años, y son muy buenos. Pero hay los que luchan toda la vida. Esos son los imprescindibles.

          by Mindful Nature on Fri Apr 05, 2013 at 11:29:03 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  one is simple approaches to improving capacity fac (0+ / 0-)

            factors.

            In Nukes, the Capacity factor for a long time was running at 40% and they drove it up to 88%,  mostly by clever management and operating with a lot of systems down.  

            in wind the problems are both forecasting and actual output.

            teh grid wants to buy MWh and the operators produce MWminutes.  

            Improved forecasting to let operators sign up for more grid blocks or having the grid buy power in shorter increments 15 minutes vs an hour or integrating short term burst backup batteries . I know some operators are looking at small gensets or gas powered turbines to hot start and provide in fill power.

            THe wind hits extractable power 85% of the time, how we go from a capacity factor of 30% to 85% is an answer that will make some people very wealthy.

            when there is money there, the answers appear.

    •  To be clear (0+ / 0-)

      I think the German approach is the way to go

      However, I don't see the US doing that anymore than I see us adopting single payer, German gun control laws, or German approaches to labor relations either.   It is a political question in large measure rather than a technical one

      Hay hombres que luchan un dia, y son buenos Hay otros que luchan un año, y son mejores Hay quienes luchan muchos años, y son muy buenos. Pero hay los que luchan toda la vida. Esos son los imprescindibles.

      by Mindful Nature on Fri Apr 05, 2013 at 09:28:29 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site