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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: Sanford's win makes a Colbert Busch upset possible (28 comments)

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  •  As far as SC-01 is concerned, (3+ / 0-)
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    kleinburger, pierre9045, Aquarius40

    I'd be fairly surprised if Team Blue devoted serious resources to taking it. It's very unfriendly territory, and those resources are better spent on more takeable seats.

    More importantly, those resources are better spent on more holdable seats: SC-01 is so Republican (PVI R+11) that I can't see Colbert-Busch holding on past next year's general election, no matter what.

    To put it in context: Colbert-Busch, if she wins, will be representing the equal-second most Republican-friendly district held by Democrats - the other two being UT-04 and NC-07, both held by Blue Dogs. Either she'll vote Blue Dog too, or she'll get turfed out no matter how much money the DCCC spends on her.

    This opinion probably won't be terribly popular, but on a strategic level, the Democratic Party's nationwide apparatuses - and even its statewide SC apparatuses - have better things to do with their time & money than back Colbert-Busch to the hilt.

    The DCCC has several dozen more reachable Republican-held seats it needs to find recruits and resources for, and the SC Democratic Party would do better recruiting Vince Sheheen and trying to knock off Nikki Haley next November.

    "Violence never requires translation, but it often causes deafness." - Bareesh the Hutt.

    by Australian2 on Thu Apr 04, 2013 at 06:33:12 AM PDT

    •  Agree to disagree (1+ / 0-)
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      Janet 707

      You make a lot of good points that I mostly agree with and makes entire rational sense.

      However, I'm going to make the case that, strategically, making a strong push in this District-if not a win for Colbert-Busch, at least keeping it close-would be worth the time and effort.

      Sanford is far from a strong candidate. Based on his record, he'll be fighting an uphill battle the whole way.

      Meanwhile, Colbert-Busch comes in with the underdog title, so any trend in her favor will be seen as momentum.

      Add in the national name-recognition of both candidates, and the election has the making to gain widespread media coverage, which may or may not be a tactical advantage in the election itself, per se, but holds value for the larger national Democrat vs. Republican debate. This election gives Democrats the opportunity to further strengthen the connection between the Republican Party and shady, untrustworthy politicians, and the connection between the Democratic Party and down-to-earth, voice-of-the-people, non-career politicians.

      •  I don't disagree that Colbert Busch (1+ / 0-)
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        has a chance of taking SC-01 in the special election, especially against a damaged candidate like Sanford. I'll even admit to rather liking her, and wishing that she could run in a less-Republican friendly district. I just don't think she's likely to hold it in future elections (especially since she won't be facing Sanford in 2014) - and that there are better, more rewarding ways that both national and state-level Democratic organisations can invest their limited resources.

        The simple reality is that (especially in a red state like SC) the Democratic Party has limited resources in terms of people to put on the ground or in the phonebanks, and it has limited resources in terms of finance as well. That being the case, those resources should be spent carefully as a strategic truism.

        There is an argument that a Democratic victory here would shock the Republican Party (and therefore be a worthwhile victory in and of itself). I reject that argument on two grounds - first, that the GOP and the onlookers will simply blame it (correctly) on Sanford rather than the GOP generally (the GOP's in pretty poor shape, but not poor enough to generally be losing R+11 districts), and second that if the GOP does get spooked, they've got over a year to get un-spooked before the next elections.

        If the shock value of a victory is what the DCCC are looking for, they should be pouring resources into VA-Gov later this year: if McAuliffe wins, it will be the first time since 1965 that the party holding the White House would also be holding the Executive Mansion in Richmond.

        Not to mention that VA is increasingly purple, and Kookinelli is looking like the kind of Republican who'll sweep the primary and hamstring himself in the general election - it'll probably be easier, if anything.

        "Violence never requires translation, but it often causes deafness." - Bareesh the Hutt.

        by Australian2 on Thu Apr 04, 2013 at 12:09:53 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  You lose every battle that you don't fight... (2+ / 0-)
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          pierre9045, JBraden

          I have to respectfully but strongly disagree with your positions on this race.

          I am an SC native and life-long  (49 years) resident.  I have lived in what is now SC-7, SC-6 and currently in SC-4.  I have never lived in SC-1 but know it well.

          Regarding Vincent Sheheen, there is NOTHING that would help him get elected MORE, than ECB winning in SC-1.  This is a district he himself will have to win in order to beat Nikki Haley.  It is also an area that she is particularly unpopular in.  It was also the 'swing' area that put the last Democrat Governor in office (Hodges in '98).  

          A win by ECB would embolden not only Sheheen himself (who has not yet committed to the race) but also his potential contributors and volunteers.

          The entire state (a small state land-wise) is following this race closely, and an upset of this magnitude would boost Democrats statewide at all levels.  We have not had a major D upset since 1998. This is the best shot since then to end that drought.

          SC Democrats need a WIN more than anything to get back on track.  If you EVER want to see a D Governor or Senator or more than one House member from this state, it is imperative that we win this race.

          As far as being a waste of resources, if DCCC invests in this race, the RCCC with HAVE to respond in kind.  So at worst it would be a wash.

          As far as losing the seat in 2014, don't forget that the GOP field will be crowded then too, with lots of time to reinforce divisions within the party.  There is a big split between the 'establishment' and the tea party already, and there is already talk of switching to convention nominations rather than primarys.  A Democratic win in SC-1 would open up a new round of circular firing on their side.  

          I grew up watching the SC GOP go from being a small minority party (5 of 46 state senators, for example) to the overwhelmingly dominant party. I can say emphatically that the SC GOP of the '70's and '80's would NOT let an opportunity like this go by.  They would pull out all the stops for an upset of this magnitude, and the national party would have supported them.  


          •  You bring up an interesting point (1+ / 0-)
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            As far as being a waste of resources, if DCCC invests in this race, the RCCC with HAVE to respond in kind.  So at worst it would be a wash.
            In the wake of Akin's ridiculous rape comments, the GOP initially spent a good deal of time distancing itself from Akin and vowed not to send any financial support. Eventually though, the threat of losing the seat forced their hand, and they silently, under-the-radar, began funneling money to Akin after all. We all know how that ended.

            I see the GOP facing a similar dilemma with Sanford, should Colbert-Busch prove to make the election close. The GOP would either be forced to invest heavily in a Sanford campaign, taking a larger reputation-hit for having to side with a politician as unsavory as Sanford, or risk losing , neither of which is good from a GOP-establishment standpoint.

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