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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 4/10 (249 comments)

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  •  We got a candidate in NY23 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, Darth Jeff, jncca

    http://www.stargazette.com/...

    Martha Robertson, who is a Tompkins County legislator from Dryden, described as a fracking opponent and is getting EMILYs List support

    The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

    by RBH on Wed Apr 10, 2013 at 04:36:35 PM PDT

    •  Good candidate (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, ArkDem14

      She's in the population base of the district, and fracking - an issue that she's opposed to apparently - is unpopular in Upstate NY.  

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Wed Apr 10, 2013 at 04:42:51 PM PDT

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    •  does anyone have any insight (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, wwmiv

      as to whether the close result last year had to do with Shinagawa's specific strengths or something else, e.g. Reed being caught sleeping? (or maybe the people of that district just have a special place in their hearts for Tompkins County legislators, in which case, lucky day for us.)

      Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

      by sapelcovits on Wed Apr 10, 2013 at 04:43:21 PM PDT

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      •  I think a mix of a bunch of factors (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades

        Reed doesn't strike me as particularly weak, so him sleeping is probably a factor. Shinagawa was also never seen as a very strong candidate, actually, so there's that. There's also the fact that Obama did decently in the district and there's no reason to think that downballot Democrats do much worse, so Shinagawa essentially matched the share.

        23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

        by wwmiv on Wed Apr 10, 2013 at 04:47:11 PM PDT

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      •  probably has a lot to do with (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ArkDem14

        Shinagawa winning Tompkins County by a 71-29 margin (26976 to 11111). The only other county where he came close to topping 48% was Chemung (where it was the same result as the district at-large). Reed won the rest.

        I think a lot of the close result was due to the Democratic tendencies of Tompkins and 2012 turnout.

        The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

        by RBH on Wed Apr 10, 2013 at 05:00:02 PM PDT

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        •  numbers (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ArkDem14, sapelcovits

          Shinagawa represents 3 precincts in Ithaca (Ward 4) in the County Legislature. He won 47 votes total in his 2009 re-election bid. In 2012, he won his district 477-71.

          Robertson represents 5 precincts in Dryden in the County Legislature. She won 797 votes total in her 2009 re-election big. In 2012, Shinagawa won her district 2296-815.

          I'm pretty sure Ward 4 (Shinagawa's district) is basically a bunch of college kids registered in other precincts and several voters.

          The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

          by RBH on Wed Apr 10, 2013 at 05:13:35 PM PDT

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          •  I live in the 4th legislative district, (4+ / 0-)

            and it is almost entirely students. It encompasses several Cornell dorms, off-campus student housing, and a few permanent residences. Turnout is going to go way down in non-presidential years, particularly since students have to re-register every year.

            As for why the result was so close, it's difficult to say. There were a couple of polls a week before election day showing Shinagawa down by 5 and most people here dismissed them as overly optimistic (one was an internal and the other was sponsored by the AFL-CIO). We were all really shocked that the result was so close on election day, both in the presidential and congressional results.

            One possible reason is that a lot of people were put off by the dismissive way that Rep. Reed seemed to treat Tompkins County. The county is of course going to give overwhelming margins to the Democrat, but it is the most populous part of the district as well as the wealthiest. He didn't even come to Cornell until one day before election day (to meet with a pro-Israel student group, which Shinagawa had met with weeks earlier), and Cornell is the district's largest employer.

            And as for fracking, Tompkins County is squarely against it (county-wide ban), but it is more controversial in the rest of the district. Many towns and villages have placed moratoriums. However, I'm not sure of the extent to which being against fracking harms the Democrat. Shinagawa has an anti-fracking position, and the people who support fracking the most were not likely to vote Democratic anyway.

            NY-03 (Home), NY-23 (College)

            by epez21 on Wed Apr 10, 2013 at 05:29:59 PM PDT

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    •  fit? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bumiputera

      Hardline opposition to fracking may play well in Ithaca but I suspect it doesn't go over so well in the rest of the district where people need work and local governments need money. NY23 is a Romney district, and absent a wave I think Dems would need someone more in the mold of Owens, Hochul, or Scott Murphy.

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Wed Apr 10, 2013 at 04:45:06 PM PDT

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    •  Seems decent (0+ / 0-)

      I hope the DCCC more carefully gauges this race this time.

      "It is the stillest words that bring on the storm. Thoughts that come on doves' feet guide the world." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

      by KingofSpades on Wed Apr 10, 2013 at 04:46:01 PM PDT

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