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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 4/11 (269 comments)

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  •  Question about Daniel Webster (R-Florida) (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Is he vulnerable? Could his 2012 opponent Val Demings unseat him in 2014?

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Thu Apr 11, 2013 at 03:38:58 PM PDT

    •  Theoretically, yes. (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Gygaxian, LordMike, JBraden, MichaelNY

      Demings was a really strong candidate and did better than most people--myself included--thought that she would do. In 2014, really really unpopular Rick Scott will be on the ballot, and whomever the Democratic nominee is could have a coattail effect, which could presumably give her a bounce.

      That being said, it's somewhat difficult territory for her to win. If I'm not mistaken, Romney won the district, and it pulls from some pretty conservative suburbs of Orlando, so it's not the friendliest territory possible.

      So I'd peg it as Lean R for now, but with a well-run campaign and a helpful national and state environment, I think that Demings could pull it off.

      19, FL-07 (school), MD-07 (home). UCF sophomore, politically ambitious, vocally liberal--what else could you need to know?

      by tqycolumbia on Thu Apr 11, 2013 at 03:54:17 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  FL-2 and 13 are more winnable than 10 (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      tqycolumbia, JBraden, MichaelNY

      If Young retires that's a almost guaranteed pickup, and assuming Gwen Graham is a strong opponent, Southerland can very much lose. That part of Florida, you still havealot  racist folks that will rather vote for a white woman, or a white general before they vote for a black man. Even though that part of the panhandle leans Dem.

      And like tqycolumbia stated, the Orlando suburbs leans Republican. Even though Webster won by 4, and Demings was a very strong candidate, because the way those suburbs tilt, it's gonna be difficult to get 50+. Dems are going to have a ceiling of 47-48% regardless

      Unless Webster has a scandal, FL-10 is lean R.

      NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

      by BKGyptian89 on Thu Apr 11, 2013 at 04:35:24 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Val Demings is looking at (4+ / 0-)

      the Orange County Mayoral race in 2014.

    •  Probably not (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      This area of the state sees some seriously bad drop off in midterms and though it's trending Democratic, we probably need presidential turnout to win it.

      •  It's also R+6 (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        And probably has a ways to go before we can even win it in a presidential year.

        23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

        by wwmiv on Thu Apr 11, 2013 at 08:01:38 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  So true (0+ / 0-)

        I remember the 2010 numbers where Sink won Ocala County by only 6 and Orange County by 11. The turnout in those counties was super low too.

        For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ CA-2 (former CA-6) College in CA-37. Go Trojans!!

        by Alibguy on Thu Apr 11, 2013 at 08:11:20 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  plus (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        it's been historically Republican, even though all that is changing now, with all the Puerto Ricans coming from up north from NY/NJ/PHI.

        NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

        by BKGyptian89 on Thu Apr 11, 2013 at 09:53:27 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

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