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View Diary: New Poll: Marriage Equality Support State-by-State (30 comments)

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  •  These results lean too conservative though. (5+ / 0-)

    Maryland at only 48%?  I don't think so.

    •  Last November, (3+ / 0-)

      Maryland voters approved marital equality by over 52%.

      And, the Poll itself has a 3% margin of error.

      With the MOE and different population group samples -- actual voters and those polled -- the Maryland polling data could well be a reasonably accurate snapshot of the larger public opinion.

      •  There is no margin of error (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        commonmass, sturunner

        for the actual vote.  

        •  Those who voted (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bythesea, commonmass, lostboyjim

          are a different population group than those who were polled.

          And my reference to the MOE was to the Poll ... literally and obviously.  With a 3% MOE, the range could be any where from 51% (statistically equivalent to the vote result) to 45% (significantly below it, within an undoubted broader survey population).

          Based on these data points for Maryland, I don't know how one can draw a proper conclusion that the polling results tilt one way or another.

          •  The proper conclusion (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            ancblu, commonmass, sturunner

            is that 52 percent + is the actual result, polls can only approximate.

            •  Not to be excessively pedantic here, (4+ / 0-)

              because Maryland's 52% vote was an excellent and necessary outcome ... but do you see a voter population as a larger or smaller set of those who might be typically polled to assess the state of broader public opinion?

              I would argue it is smaller because all members of a political community are not equally registered to vote, nor do they participate in voting in equal numbers -- some more than average, some less.  And each of the various voter/non-voter sub-groups (younger, African American, Latino, women, etc., for example) would be expected to have different splits of opinions on the marital equality issue.

              As a simple voting matter, 52% clearly wins the day ... but it may or may not accurately reflect broader public opinion.  In the Maryland case, though, the MOE range in the Poll would include the effective voting outcome, even though I would highly doubt there was any form of voter screen employed in the polling methodology.

            •  population != voters (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:

              I think what Ancblu is trying to note is that in that election conservatives were not motivated to get out and vote.  Liberal very much were.    

              If another vote occurred where there was no other liberal issues on the ballot, but a close and interesting conservative measure or primary, you could see a different outcome.

              Minority rights should never be subject to majority vote.

              by lostboyjim on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 07:34:08 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  Washington also ... (0+ / 0-)

      had actual vote % higher than this poll's estimates.

      I'm not sure I'd trust the absolute levels, for several reasons.  But the estimated differences among states are informative, and may be a good guide where to focus the next efforts.

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