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View Diary: DPRK Preparing for Multiple Missile Launches (50 comments)

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  •  I thought about it awhile back (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Azazello, Sparhawk, TheDuckManCometh

    They do have lotsa of equipment and troops, so did Saddam in 1991, including the much "vaunted Republican Guard" , they do have Nukes, so do a crap load of other countries. They are a hindrance to the conspiracy theories out there, real and imagined. My guess is if one missile starts lift off that country will get wiped out without a single nuke being tossed.

    The reality is when can only guess what's causing this but it ain't a 30 year old kid. This may be what happens when a country full of people are going hungry and the govt starts to see them as more of a threat than they do the outside world.

    “ Success has a great tendency to conceal and throw a veil over the evil of men. ” — Demosthenes

    by Dburn on Tue Apr 09, 2013 at 08:08:38 PM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  That's not correct, (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      kurious, Ky DEM
      My guess is if one missile starts lift off that country will get wiped out without a single nuke being tossed.
      North Korea has been launching missiles for decades with impunity.

      The reason is that North Korea isn't Iraq or Libya. That's another one of the great fallacies people have. Saddam didn't even have chemical weapons. North Korea has nuclear weapons. It's also launched a satellite into orbit. It can also level a metropolis of 26 million people with tens of thousands of US troops stationed there, with artillery. Having nuclear weapons, actually makes a difference. Theres' a chance they could even put warheads on the tips of missiles, thus with the ability to nuke anywhere in South Korea or Japan. It's more 1962 than 1991.

      "It is, it seems, politically impossible to organize expenditure on the scale necessary to prove my case -- except in war conditions."--JM Keynes, 1940

      by randomfacts on Tue Apr 09, 2013 at 08:15:01 PM PDT

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      •  They may have nuclear weapons (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Dburn

        but they are years away from making them small enough to fit on a missile. That's not the most immediate threat.

        They are close enough to Seoul to lob artillery shells into the city, including chemical/biological weapons if they have such, or even nuclear dirty bombs via artillery. They also have missiles than can hit Japan, but probably not with any great accuracy ( they can't hit an American base, but could hit the city it's in).

        It could get very nasty very quickly, and the North's staying power would be directly related to whether they get support from China or Russia. Without external support, they can cause a lot of damage but won't last long.

         

        Filibuster reform, 2013 - woulda, coulda, shoulda.

        by bear83 on Tue Apr 09, 2013 at 08:39:17 PM PDT

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      •  North Korea... (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Dburn, native, TheDuckManCometh

        ...has only had three nuclear weapon tests in 2006, 2009, and 2013. The first one was basically a fizzle.

        Considering what a specialized pain in the ass uranium enrichment / plutonium production is, and what a shambles their economy is, I would be shocked if they had more than 1-2 bombs and I put it 50/50 that their actual number is zero and they just do a test pretty much whenever they can scrape together enough fissile material to make a bomb.

        While one can hypothesize whatever, there is no evidence they can put one of these devices on a missile, and like I said there's a good chance they don't even have any.

        That being said, your point is well-taken and even a badly made cobbled together nuclear weapon is very dangerous, but I just don't see them as that much of a threat in this regard. I think this situation now is about the internal politics of North Korea.

        Their ruling family and upper echelon military live very comfortable lives (at least by the standards of that country). I doubt they are going to do something extremely stupid and upset the apple cart. All this posturing may be just an attempt to put another Agreed Framework type deal in place in exchange for aid. Military aggression is pretty much the only card they have to play.

        (-5.50,-6.67): Left Libertarian
        Leadership doesn't mean taking a straw poll and then just throwing up your hands. -Jyrinx

        by Sparhawk on Tue Apr 09, 2013 at 10:30:03 PM PDT

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    •  Not so much . (0+ / 0-)
      they do have Nukes, so do a crap load of other countries.
      Not so much .
      My guess is if one missile starts lift off that country will get wiped out without a single nuke being tossed.
      We can shoot at , shoot down if we can , any missile we feel is a threat . But we can't start attacking them without real good cause . We can't allow them to start something frivolously . They really have to be the party who does wrong in a very large way to drag the parties into battle .

      Drop the name-calling MB 2/4/11 + Please try to use ratings properly! Kos 9/9/11

      by indycam on Tue Apr 09, 2013 at 08:25:28 PM PDT

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      •  You have to look at the ROK (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        native

        army and the politics in the country. They know much better than us what the problems are and how much danger they are in. In addition, they have a very capable military. This isn't 1950. They have maintained a state of readiness and have gamed out just about everything possible. The are the ones that will lead.

        The Koreans are a very proud people. The ROK Military is incredibly capable in comparison to what was there in 1950-53. A portion of that is the equipment we have provided them. But a large part of it will be the willingness to use that equipment. They can be plenty effective on their own. They will definitely need our support but we will be in a supporting role here.

        It would be a major loss of face for the Korean Govt to be behind another nation in attacking a portion of their own country. Many of the people in power are people that were born well after 1950-53. Many of them resent the US presence and have made this known with repeated demonstrations, and some that have gotten violent against the very US troops that are there to protect them. They are of the opinion we are no longer needed (for various reasons on the left and on the right) and we should leave. So there is a split inside S. Korea.

        We will be taking direction in a supporting role by the ROK. The Japanese will also have input here along with the Chinese and the Russians. This will be a very delicate balancing act. I guarantee you there is a crapload of behind the scenes diplomatic maneuvering to lock down positions so a single face can be presented to North Korea even if it comes to war.

        The previous conflict turned when the Chinese assisted the Koreans by sending waves of humans into devastating fire , but enough to overwhelm Un Peacekeepers led by the US .
        That pushed us out out of North Korea , brought about a stalemate and leaves us in the condition we find ourselves in today.

        We need S. Korea and Japan as much as they need us. Look to how  S. Korea and Japan respond  and then Russia and China not necessarily in that order. That will dictate how we respond. The geopolitics on this is amazingly complex. I do believe in the end if a single Nuke goes into play that N. Korea will have lost the minute they do that. The international community will respond as one.

        Finally, S. Korea is doing all it can to avoid a repeat of Germany's reunification. It was one of those "be careful what you wish for scenarios". If  Germany wasn't such a powerhouse financially it could have never been done. S. Korea has a much greater problem than Germany had if they are unified again. Many S. Koreans want the unification but the more pragmatic ones are of the belief that the economics of it would sink the whole nation.  Yet they are faced with the reality of all or none and that it will probably happen sometime whether they want it or not.

        The problem has many different sides to look at even in
        the face of Nukes. I imagine the economic effect is on the international community's mind right now as the World economy is literally teetering .

        “ Success has a great tendency to conceal and throw a veil over the evil of men. ” — Demosthenes

        by Dburn on Wed Apr 10, 2013 at 07:56:28 AM PDT

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    •  We don't have to guess... (0+ / 0-)

      The US is causing this!  We have been instigators recently and that fact that the public doesn't get that worries me.  

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