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View Diary: What's The Goal? What's The Strategy? (196 comments)

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  •  IF the GOP is offered something they wont accept (10+ / 0-)

    Why not offer something that is scaled to the problem

    A return to New Deal infrastructure spending: 6% of GDP-900 billion, would create about 23 million jobs (22.5).

    26 million under employed or unemployed, U6 is at 21.5 million. Fudge it: 23 million.

    The CBO scoring of the 75 yr SS shortfall is .6% of GDP, which would equal 23 million jobs at 31.5k producing 89.3 billion in FICA. 15 trillion dollar economy, .6% is 90 billion.

    BTW 36k is median income for a male working full time yr round.

    ...... Social Security blogathon March 25th thru March 29th. #HandsOffmySS FDR 9-23-33, "If we cannot do this one way, we will do it another way. But do it we will.

    by Roger Fox on Fri Apr 12, 2013 at 12:11:31 PM PDT

    •  I think you make an interesting point (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Roger Fox, New Rule, Creosote

      And maybe points to Obama undervaluing the concession he offered.

      BTW, I hope this diary does not offend in that it is eschewing the substance.

      I really am interested in what people think the President is trying to achieve here.

      •  One angle (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Armando, RainyDay

        IF in fact its the "Well the GOP aint never going to agree to that, it'll never be law"

        Then why not swing for the fences?

        Let the GOP turn down 20 million jobs and run on that in 2010, er ah, I mean 2012, er ah I mean 2014.

        There in lies the rub, the result is continued gridlock, which I'm sure the WH could have predicted.

        Gridlock itself is thusly a fabrication, an excuse for not being able to talk about creating 20 million jobs, which then perpetuates the talk of the Debt is too high.

        Both parties exaggerate the distance between the two, to energize the base and to solicit for donations.

        SO logically we then need to "Fix The Debt". No?


        ...... Social Security blogathon March 25th thru March 29th. #HandsOffmySS FDR 9-23-33, "If we cannot do this one way, we will do it another way. But do it we will.

        by Roger Fox on Fri Apr 12, 2013 at 12:28:18 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Perhaps the President is captive to CW? (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Armando, JesseCW, Creosote

          Why not swing for the fences?  Perhaps he thought he was.

          I recall hearing after the first debate with Romney, the President didn't realize just how badly he got rolled until he actually saw the actual footage.  I read that as his having a natural blind-spot for how optics play out in this process while he's in the center of it.  This could be much the same.

          If he seriously has accepted CW that SS needs to be 'reformed' lest it collapse tomorrow, then perhaps this was a trial balloon to measure public and GOP reaction, as well as demonstrate to the Beltway aristos how 'tough' he's willing to be with his supporters.  

          If that's really the case, he again doesn't appreciate the imagery he's projecting.   Whatever the merits of the proposed budget, it immediately falls prey to relatively simple summary: it cuts entitlements deeply, all in the name of deficit reduction, but offers little to no relief to those how actually need those programs.

          That's my simplest read on it.  How on-target it is/isn't will only be revealed in time.  

    •  I must quibble a bit (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      CS in AZ, Creosote

      with the New Deal infrastructure figures.

      The two big public works programs were the Public Works Administration, which did not directly hire workers instead working through private contractors (in much the same way that 2009 Recovery Act did), and the more well-known Works Progress Administration.  In all some $13 billion was expended on WPA during its lifetime, from 1935-1943, and the PWA doled out $6 billion during its existence from 1933-1943.

      If you just do the math on that, we're talking an average of about $2 billion a year, and thus as a percentage of GDP each year infrastructure spending averaged more like 2-3% of GDP per year.  Because state and local governments were simulatenously increasing taxes and cutting spending, and because of tax increases implemented in 1932 prior to Roosevelt assuming the presidency, much of the stimulative effect of New Deal spending was cancelled out.

      In reality, the main problem with the New Deal was, as Paul Krugman has written,

      the New Deal didn’t pursue Keynesian policies. Properly measured, that is, by using the cyclically adjusted deficit, fiscal policy was only modestly expansionary, at least compared with the depth of the slump.
      Which is why even at full capacity the WPA hired no more than 3 million persons in any given year, many of them hired sporadically, at a time when there were over 10 million unemployed in any given year of the Depression.  Not to mention, the wages paid by WPA were lower than the average pay of the typical American worker, the result of FDR insisting that WPA not pay prevailing wages (so as to not discourage the unemployed from taking private sector jobs).

      And this was in an era when we had a Congress and political climate far more favorable to government spending and intervention in the economy.  What you're calling for, a program comprising 6% of GDP, has only been accomplished in wartime, and in today's climate would have no chance of ever being enacted even if we "had an FDR".  

      Unfortunately the reality is and has seemingly always been, with regard to domestic spending, as Keynes described in 1940:

      “It seems politically impossible for a capitalistic democracy to organize expenditure on the scale necessary to make the grand experiment which would prove my case – except in war conditions.”

      “Th’ noise ye hear is not th’ first gun iv a revolution. It’s on’y th’ people iv the United States batin’ a carpet.” - Mr. Dooley

      by puakev on Fri Apr 12, 2013 at 02:10:47 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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