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View Diary: Did Gerrymandering Cost Dems the House? A 34-State Look at Alternative Nonpartisan Maps Suggests Yes (161 comments)

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  •  Yeah, it so happens that the most effective (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Stephen Wolf, elwior

    gerrymanders are in some of the most stagnant states - MI, OH, PA. So demographic/population change alone probably won't do much for us in those places.

    It would be an interesting follow-up to try to figure out where the gerrymanders are most likely to unravel by 2020. I'm guessing Virginia? Maybe Florida...? Bet we gain a seat each in NJ and NV, too, based on demographic change.

    •  I would bet Virginia or Florida too if not for the (5+ / 0-)

      patter that in the south unfortunately a lot of the Dem growth is in places that are already packed into Dem vote sinks, like Fairfax County Virginia and parts of Prince William. I might even wager North Carolina as the 9th district is clearly moving towards us and there's a good chance the 2nd and 13th might as well, but the flip side of that is the 7th is trending away so I couldn't really say conclusively. I'll definitely think about this conversation if I'm still in this line of hobby/work 8 years from now.

      One thing that seems destined to happen though is in California where demographic creep alone will cause many of our districts to solidify and the GOP ones to become swingy simply because there's a massive generational gap and it's only growing wider. We'll eventually get to the point where seats like CA-22 and 23 become somewhat competitive, though it might be a little more than 10 years in that case. That area of the central valley is something like >80% Hispanic under 18 if not more and most of those people are citizens eligible to vote when they turn 18.

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