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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 4/15 (278 comments)

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  •  I just hope that the NDP and liberals (8+ / 0-)

    can settle their differences enough to rid themselves of the odious Stephen Harper. Him getting an outright majority of seats in the last election with 40% of the vote was awful.

    •  Not (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14, MichaelNY

      going to happen. You should of seen the contempt Trudeau and the other Liberal contenders (except for Joyce Murray who advocated for electoral cooperation) visible showed for the NDP during the Liberal leadership race.

      And of course now that the Liberals are buoyed by their numbers in the polls there is no way in hell the Liberals are going to enter into an alliance with the NDP. The Liberals are also still pissed that the NDP helped bring down Paul Martin's government in 2006.

      The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

      by ehstronghold on Mon Apr 15, 2013 at 08:49:16 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  This would be like... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        If the Progressive Party in the United States hadn't gone away after the 1910s. Liberals would never win an election.

      •  poll numbers (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        The Grits' poll numbers aren't that good. They're leading only in the maritimes, competitive in Ontario and Quebec, and getting dusted in the west.

        Basically we're at Tories 31, Grits 28, NDP 27, Greens 7, Bloc 6.

        Last election: Tories 40 (166 seats), NDP 31 (103), Grits 19 (34), Bloc 6 (4), Greens 4 (1).

        If these poll numbers hold up, the result would almost certainly be a Grit-NDP coalition government. Of course things will change, but unless the Grits can get to around 40% of the vote they will either be out of power or in a coalition with the NDP. Assuming they're still in the 20s or 30s they should try to cooperate with the NDP before the election because (in the best case) they'll have to do it anyway after the election.

        SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Mon Apr 15, 2013 at 09:35:44 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ehstronghold, ArkDem14, MichaelNY

        Between now and 2015, I'd say there's a better chance of the Conservatives ripping themselves apart over abortion than there is of the Liberals and the NDP settling their differences and reaching some sort of electoral cooperation agreement.

        I'll also caution anyone who's looking at poll numbers and naming Trudeau PM that the Liberals also led the Conservatives in party preference polling immediately after Michael Ignatieff was named leader, and immediately after Stephon Dion won his leadership race.

        That's not to say that Trudeau will be as big a flop as those two, but he had a pretty easy walk to victory and is enjoying his honeymoon. It won't last.

        •  Yeah (0+ / 0-)

          already I see that video clip the Tories featured of Justin Trudeau taking off his shirt to feature predominantly in their attack ads. And of course they're going to try to dig up the ghosts of his father's famous dismissal of Western Canada.

          The biggest test for the Liberals and the NDP now is the Labrador by-election and the Nova Scotia provincial election.

          The Liberals are a favorite to win the Labrador by-election and better than even odds of defeating the incumbent NDP Nova Scotia government, but I wouldn't count out the NDP in either of those races yet.

          The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

          by ehstronghold on Mon Apr 15, 2013 at 10:20:47 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  The Canadian left is going through (0+ / 0-)

      what the Canadian right went through in the 90s and early 2000s. The right was split between Reform/Canadian Alliance in the West and the remnants of the Progressive Conservatives in the east. Their mutual competition led to the Liberals sweeping almost all of the Ontario seats (which make up a third of the House) and forming government until the Canadian right was able to unify under the Conservative banner in 2003. The Liberals started going downhill from there and, combined with the sponsorship scandal, saw its government defeated in 2006.

      23, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14.

      by kurykh on Mon Apr 15, 2013 at 01:55:48 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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