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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 4/15 (278 comments)

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  •  I doubt it has to do with votes (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ArkDem14, Skaje, JBraden, MichaelNY

    and everything to do with timing. The guy has only run one election ever and announcing for senate just 3 months into his term looks incredibly opportunistic. He can do like John Boozman and wait until early 2014 to announce, especially if he's fundraising like this every quarter.

    I think there's a strong chance he runs, but the fact that he's never had to run a competitive election before is at least not something going in his favor.

    •  He's no Rick Berg (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Rick Berg thought he could coast into a Senate seat after solidly defeating a popular incumbent in Earl Pomeroy in 2010. Berg basically signed up, sat back, and let Crossroads/his campaign launch generic, ineffective ads against Heidi Heitkamp while Heitkamp tirelessly crusaded across the state in search of every last vote she could get. By the time Berg realized that, wait a minute, he could perhaps lose, Heitkamp already had the leg up in the race.

      Cotton's a lot more ambitious and is far more of a go-getter than Rick Berg is. If he runs against Pryor, he's going to run a hell of a race.

      Also, don't tell me that he hasn't run in a competitive race before; do you know how much of an underdog Tom Cotton was to Beth Anne Rankin when he got into the AR-04 GOP primary in 2012? He was polling in low single digits and she was quite popular and in strong position to win. He tirelessly campaigned for votes across the 4th district against a popular figure in the district. It took hard work for him to win that primary (though Club for Growth money certainly helped but, as Rick Berg's performance showed, money itself doesn't win a race if a candidate doesn't campaign effectively).

      Home: North Shore of Illinois, College: Main Line of Pennsylvania (PA-07)

      by IllinoyedR on Mon Apr 15, 2013 at 11:56:09 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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