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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 4/15 (278 comments)

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  •  Background checks (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    WisJohn, DCCyclone, MichaelNY

    Looks like the Republican senate leadership is using the background checks amendment to smoke out the vulnerable Dems up for reelection in '14.

    HuffPo shows 52 Aye votes for the amendment, and 10 undecided (it's actually 9, as TPM has reported that Jeff Flake is a No).
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

    That leaves Heller, Ayotte, and McCain as the only "gettable" Republican votes left. And assuming they all vote Aye, only one Democrat could vote against the amendment with the amendment still passing.

    Sadly, this makes me think the amendment's going to fail. But that's a policy discussion. As for the electoral implications of it, if I'm a Pryor or a Begich, I'm not sure what I'd do. The closeness of the vote in the senate probably makes House passage less likely anyway, so why take the campaign hit?

    (Other than personal integrity, that is.)

    •  Electorally speaking (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JBraden, MichaelNY, LordMike

      I heard on MSNBC this morning but I forgot what show. Gun control advocate like Bloomberg's group, should go the ballot initiative route. Especially states that are blue but have have red legislatures, and GOV Govs. Pennsylvania (highly likely GOP loses both chambers & governorship) Michigan (likely they lose house and governorship). Purple states that are red in the legislature Florida and North Carolina)

      Blue states that have blue legislatures, but have GOP Govs, that think they could be Prez, but won't sign a gun control bill cause it will destroy him in the primaries, that he won't win anyways. Talking bout fatso here in New Jersey.

      NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

      by BKGyptian89 on Mon Apr 15, 2013 at 07:53:35 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Gun control is going nowhere at federal level (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, LordMike

        Even if the Senate gets it passed there's no chance the House will.  And at this point the bill is watered down near the point of uselessness anyway.  I do think the state level is where we should fight the fight for gun control.

        Of course in my home state of Florida it does take 60% to pass a ballot initiative.  I suppose enhanced background checks could reach that level, but little beyond that.

      •  I saw an article that in Washington State (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, MichaelNY

        that's the route they're going.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Mon Apr 15, 2013 at 09:33:08 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Fatso (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, wwmiv, HoosierD42

        You're real mature, dude.

        20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

        by jncca on Mon Apr 15, 2013 at 09:58:59 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  There's no hit b/c Reid won't hold the vote (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, MichaelNY, gabjoh

      Reid is as smart as Pelosi, he doesn't hold a vote he can't win unless it's to make a political point that helps his party.

      If this vote potentially hurts some of his own party's Senators without having the votes to pass, he won't hold the vote at all.

      45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Mon Apr 15, 2013 at 08:13:31 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Well I think we could easily get to the point (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        where the amendment could pass if and only if all Dems voted for it, including Begich and Pryor who voted just days ago against cloture on the motion to proceed.

        But even then, whatever the senate eventually sends to the House is likely to get mucked around with, and while Reid is smart, I doubt he can foresee all the twists and turns this thing will take before it's complete. So there's probably a good deal of risk here.

      •  Cap and Trade (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, WisJohn

        Pelosi held a vote and hurt her party badly.

        20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

        by jncca on Mon Apr 15, 2013 at 09:59:21 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Very much (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Chachy, DCCyclone, NMLib, askew

          The subject of dispute. By no means a fact.

          Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

          by David Nir on Mon Apr 15, 2013 at 10:17:11 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  She held a vote that didn't help any incumbents (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, WisJohn

            in swing states and certainly hurt at least Boucher and Chandler, while making the Democratic Party look more liberal nationally at a time when swing voters were abandoning us, all while it never passed into law.

            20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
            politicohen.com
            Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
            UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

            by jncca on Mon Apr 15, 2013 at 10:58:00 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  You miss the point, that bill PASSED (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          HoosierD42, MichaelNY

          They will push a vote if it can pass.

          The discussion here about the Senate gun control bill was the "box" some D Senators would be in on a vote that ultimately fails anyway.

          If the votes are there to pass it and a few tough D votes are needed, Reid will buttonhole them to try to get them.

          On cap-and-trade, Pelosi got the votes to pass it, and further she did so because Obama and Reid promised her they would then push it in the Senate.  They let her down by failing to live up to their end of the deal, leaving Pelosi and her caucus holding the bag.  But ultimately she got the votes to pass the thing, so that fits what I'm saying.

          45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Tue Apr 16, 2013 at 03:29:06 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

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