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View Diary: Where is your Gold Messiah now, Glenn Beck? (49 comments)

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  •  The price for 20 franc gold coins (0+ / 0-)

    has hardly budged at all on Ebay France. The American Cafe blog says this price fall is all manipulation by the big boys and that you can't buy real gold at the new fallen level.

    •  Um, if you were melting them down and THEN (0+ / 0-)

      selling them and their prices were stable over this time, that would tell you something. As is, the fact that 20-franc gold coins aren't changing in price as gold plummets tells me that those coins are worth more as collectors' items than for their raw material.

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      by Code Monkey on Mon Apr 15, 2013 at 08:27:43 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I'm not speaking of collectors pieces. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        kalmoth

        Just pieces in ordinary condition and issuance. Collectors pieces get a much higher premium depending on condition and rarity.

        •  Wait, are these Swiss francs or something? (0+ / 0-)

          Well, that makes more sense. (I was thinking of French francs, which I suppose figures since I'm sitting here typing this in Paris …)

          But then if they're actually legal tender, then of course there's a floor on their value, since the bank will always buy them. It's still a fiat currency, even if its coinage is gold. (It's not like the value of the penny fluctuates with copper, after all — just the cost of minting it.)

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          by Code Monkey on Mon Apr 15, 2013 at 08:35:30 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I'm speaking of old French francs, (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Chinton

            normally called Napoleans. The contain 5.8 grams of pure gold. The last ones were made around 1910.

            •  *facepalm* So they ARE collector's pieces. (0+ / 0-)

              Exactly how much do those coins go for? And how much does 5.8 grams of gold go for?

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              by Code Monkey on Mon Apr 15, 2013 at 08:41:49 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  At this moment the piece of gold in euros (0+ / 0-)

                is around 34 per gram; ie, 197.20 per 20 franc piece. They are cyrrently selling for about 235 euros the piece, almost a 40 euro premium. Normally the premium is around 20 euros which leads me to beleve that Jesse's Café Americain is correct.

                •  Or eBay is essentially acting as a futures market, (0+ / 0-)

                  and people expect the price of gold to recover by the time their purchase arrives at their doorstep.

                  Or (and, for the sake of my faith in humanity, this is my preferred explanation) people don't actually buy century-old gold coins on eBay as a ludicrous form of currency speculation, so the price is based more on the historical/collector's value than on the raw materials.

                  Also, just how big is the eBay gold franc market? Just how many goldbugs with money and denial would it take to inflate that price simply by being willing to buy it at the higher price? After all, suppose the eBay gold franc market really is a proxy for the gold market (*shudder*). I imagine the eBay market would be dominated by goldbugs, no? Who, as a group, are committed to the notion that gold is inherently valuable, and as such the current plunge must be a conspiracy. So if the price would be 250€ if it weren't for The Man, and the (rigged) price of gold would put the coins at 217.20€ (gold plus 20€ premium), then 235€ is still a good deal, despite the higher premium.

                  IOW, all you need for the coins to have a high eBay value is enough eBayers who think they are — or soon will be — worth that much. That's a much simpler explanation than an anti-gold conspiracy.

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                  by Code Monkey on Mon Apr 15, 2013 at 09:07:33 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Here's the link to the Café Americain article. (0+ / 0-)

                    This guy is not an off the wall type.

                    http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.fr/...

                    •  Eh, sounds pretty wacky to me. (0+ / 0-)

                      At any rate, buried in the quotation he pulls is this:

                      I know where the gold is coming from in the market, it’s just paper. It’s naked shorts, there is no gold there. If somebody wanted to take delivery on those contracts nobody would be able to provide it. I don’t know what the source of the (physical) gold is. Some people are saying that the actual stocks available for possession are rapidly declining
                      I think that's your answer right there. It sounds like there's a speculation-fueled gold bubble that just burst, same as the housing market did. Welcome to the world of shadow banking.

                      Also, given that the bottom is falling out of the gold market for apparently no good reason, if you dealt in actual physical gold, would you sell it right now? It makes perfect sense to me that commodities trading, with evil bullshit like naked short selling, could push the paper value of something lower than anyone would sell the real thing for. (Just be glad there's no such thing as a CDO for gold … right? Right?)

                      I see no reason to believe this is a deliberate action by anyone. The product of a fucked-up system, perhaps, if there's something truly hinky going on like the Enron loophole inflating oil values by speculation. But that's different from Ben Bernanke sitting at the levers of power, moving “gold” down a few notches while laughing maniacally.

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                      by Code Monkey on Mon Apr 15, 2013 at 09:27:07 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  Goldman Sachs said "sell" last week. (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        Code Monkey

                        Think they might be buying today?

                        •  Well now I'm listening :-) (0+ / 0-)

                          Goldman Sachs manipulating the gold market to its advantage is a much better explanation to me than governments somehow falsifying the price. (Which isn't to say governments are off the hook; no-one should be able to defraud with quite the volume that GS manages, and financial deregulation is what allows them to do it. In particular, if naked shorting and other shenanigans aren't being well policed, that is governments' fault. It's just not a conspiracy except in the sense that the police have been paid off.)

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                          by Code Monkey on Mon Apr 15, 2013 at 09:55:38 AM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

        •  (And wait, people actually use eBay (0+ / 0-)

          to invest in money? Like, plain old currency? Jesus Christ, that's wasteful. Money markets aren't free, but all the overhead … on top of eBay's taste, you have the cost of physically shipping your investment around.

          Cripes. Must be expensive being nuts.)

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          by Code Monkey on Mon Apr 15, 2013 at 08:40:23 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

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