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View Diary: The Evening Blues - 4-26-13 (39 comments)

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  •  Good evening Joe (4+ / 0-)

    How ya doing?

    .................expect us......................... FDR 9-23-33, "If we cannot do this one way, we will do it another way. But do it we will.

    by Roger Fox on Fri Apr 26, 2013 at 05:53:48 PM PDT

    •  evening roger... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      joanneleon, Roger Fox, ek hornbeck

      i'm doing pretty well... i'm listening to billie holiday warbling "these foolish things" right about now and really enjoying the horn players.  so it's kind of mellow tonight here at chez shikspack.

      i've been reading a lot of the coverage of the reinhart-rogoff death-by-spreadsheet debacle lately.  it's kind of funny to me that what the press is jumping all over is a spreadsheet error, when for ages all of the economists that i respect have argued that popular interpretations of their work were invalidated by a causation problem.

      i guess i'm glad that now that we've caught them in a really stupid error that we can say that their work is meaningless crap that's been completely overblown. B)

      i'm part of the 99% - america's largest minority

      by joe shikspack on Fri Apr 26, 2013 at 06:03:17 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  The selective data omission issue (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        joe shikspack, Roger Fox, ek hornbeck

        is the one that is most damning in my eyes.

        I'd like to know more about the times when they were asked for their model and data in the past and refused to provide it too.  I wonder what made them decide to provide their data and spreadsheet this time.


        "Justice is a commodity"

        by joanneleon on Fri Apr 26, 2013 at 06:12:28 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I'm asking the same question (3+ / 0-)

          What were they thinking giving the UMass kid the data?

          1) Oh he wont figure out what we did.

          2) We regret what we did, and its time to make amends.

          3) We got paid 3 years ago, who cares.

          4) Give it to the kid, and we'll poo poo his results.

          I just dont get it.

          .................expect us......................... FDR 9-23-33, "If we cannot do this one way, we will do it another way. But do it we will.

          by Roger Fox on Fri Apr 26, 2013 at 06:18:38 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  i'm wondering if they might have figured... (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Roger Fox, joanneleon, ek hornbeck

            that the larger problem with their analysis had been successfully beaten down by the media wurlitzer so they were not really worried over whatever the grad student might find.   i don't think that they knew about the spreadsheet error, i suspect that was a surprise.  i expect that they felt that they could beat back questions about their bizarre methodology.  i'm suspecting that they were blindsided by the spreadsheet error and the publicity it got.

            if it hadn't been for the spreadsheet error, i'm nearly 100% positive there wouldn't have been much interest.  the news media doesn't like to run stories where they have to explain mathematical concepts like the discussion over weighting and averaging, but a spreadsheet error - well now, that is something that is easy to explain and grabs the public's interest.

            i'm part of the 99% - america's largest minority

            by joe shikspack on Fri Apr 26, 2013 at 06:30:05 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  R&R is all over twitter (3+ / 0-)

        with only a very few defenders.

        .................expect us......................... FDR 9-23-33, "If we cannot do this one way, we will do it another way. But do it we will.

        by Roger Fox on Fri Apr 26, 2013 at 06:19:33 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

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