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View Diary: Elizabeth Colbert Busch's lead over Mark Sanford grows in South Carolina special election (108 comments)

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  •  This would be a very nice win indeed if she (11+ / 0-)

    is able to pull it off.  GOP will write it off as Sanford being too morally and ethically compromised for the district, but I think it would be a sign that there is no great wave of enthusiasm for the GOP's ideology or their recent policy stances.

    Alternative rock with something to say:

    by khyber900 on Mon Apr 22, 2013 at 12:15:10 PM PDT

    •  Don't see much significance of this race.... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, nimh

      If Colbert wins she'll almost certainly get wacked by a non Sanford Republic come 2014. A single seat in the current house will make no difference, either. That body is controlled by the Tea Bags folks and there's never a close vote.

      •  I agree. This is a meaningless waste of money (0+ / 0-)

        If a Dem wins here, they will be dead man walking in 2014.  If anybody but Sanford was the GOP nominee,  they would be ahead with at least 55%.  

        All this proves is that voters, regardless of party affiliation, are not sleazy enough to support a character line Sanford.  And, as stated above, one more Dem vote in the House is like pissing into the ocean.  The GOP lost that very red seat in NY in 2011 (I think?), and it didn't make a hill a beans worth of difference.

        In 2014, the GOP will nominate somebody clean, and they'll send Colbert the way of Scott Brown.

        It's really quite remarkable how polarized the country is right now.  There really is very little pink or purple.  Even more so at the local level.  

        •  Probably but (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          terjeanderson, JBraden, nimh

          A) You'd rather win it than lose it; it can help change the media narrative in at the very least a not unhelpful way (Versus "Democrats can't even beat this guy!") It's also a morale boost to the local party, which doesn't get many victories.

          B) There's always the off chance that it can be held for a cycle or two and if you're going to have ANY chance of holding it in a general, it's with an incumbent. If Colbert-Busch strikes a good balance, as some Dems in red districts manage, she might hang in there for a while. It's not very likely at all, but you never know.

          C) I doubt the party is spending all that much money on it relatively speaking anyway.

        •  Eh.... (0+ / 0-)

          The pre-primary polls showed ECB beating both Republicans. To to say that anyone else would win be beating ECB with 55% you would have to unskew the polls and recent evidence suggest that doing so is a bad idea.

          One thing I find stupid of the groups spending on behalf of ECB is that they are simply attacking Sandford; the real election in this district is 2014 not now; attacking Sandford does nothing to help prospects in 2014. The district already hates Sandford making them hate him more isn't going to do much, but airing positive adds on behalf of ECB helps her in 2014.
          The adds don't even have to be full on positive they can be like, "While Sandford was hiking in Argentina Colbert was...."
          But the fact that the adds are pure negative shows how Democratic organizations do not think long term.

          We only think nothing goes without saying.

          by Hamtree on Mon Apr 22, 2013 at 08:42:42 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Hamtree, it is ... (0+ / 0-)

            ... Politics 101 that you start your advertising blitz painting your opponent in a bad light, and then you end the campaign with ads painting yourself in a good light. That's the way it's done, and for a reason. The "long term" is won by winning elections now.

            I would tip you, but the man took away my tips.

            by Tortmaster on Mon Apr 22, 2013 at 11:22:07 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  Never underestimate (0+ / 0-)

            the capacity of the DCCC and Democratic PACs to throw good money after bad.

            "Violence never requires translation, but it often causes deafness." - Bareesh the Hutt.

            by Australian2 on Tue Apr 23, 2013 at 01:25:20 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  It's important.... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          susan in sc

 terms of being a momentum changer. The press will talk about how Democrats are doing well even in Republican turf. Republicans talking about how deeply flawed Sanford is comes across as loser talk. Sure, if Colbert Busch wins the seat, she's probably going to be seriously embattled in 2014, but she WILL be an incumbent and that's going to lead to Republicans spending money to contest a seat they never should have had to contest.

        •  Wrong. This is not a meaningless ... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          ... waste of money. Elizabeth Colbert Busch led in the polls against Sanford's rival in the GOP primary. There are no bright shining "stars" on the horizon (i.e. Tim Scott--Gag!). Colbert Busch can win, and she will have an opportunity to keep the seat in 2014.

          On top of all of that, this would be as symbolic as Scott Brown's win in 2010 in the Massachusett's special election. This is a District with two potential blue hubs in Myrtle Beach and Charleston. As a district resident, I see this as a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to get our foot in the door.  

          I would tip you, but the man took away my tips.

          by Tortmaster on Mon Apr 22, 2013 at 11:17:34 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  SC Dems need a victory, and this (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:

            would be a huge momentum builder both in the state and nationally.   Sheheen is running for Governor again and having an incumbent with funds running with him, will help pull out the D and I vote in this district in 2014.  

            Don't take this one for granted, though.  

            •  Agreed, vicupstate, and ... (0+ / 0-)

              ... I will continue working on it! I am expecting Nikki Haley to keep getting panned for job performance, and that could set up some interesting 2014 fireworks.

              I would tip you, but the man took away my tips.

              by Tortmaster on Tue Apr 23, 2013 at 03:07:58 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

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