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View Diary: Elizabeth Colbert Busch's lead over Mark Sanford grows in South Carolina special election (108 comments)

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  •  Looks like GOP voters are staying home (7+ / 0-)

    Romney only won the district 50-45 in 2012 among voters in this poll.  The 2012 result for SC-01 was Romney 58-40 in that district.

    I can't believe they're gift wrapping us yet another special election seat we have no business winning.

    •  I thought they were done (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      Giving us these seats in wrapping paper with colorful ribbons after Missouri and Indiana but I'm glad I was wrong.

      For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog CA-2 (former CA-6) College in CA-37. Go Trojans!!

      by Alibguy on Mon Apr 22, 2013 at 01:17:54 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I'm dubious of the poll (1+ / 0-)
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      I don't mean that I think their methodology is flawed. This is one of those special cases where people may be reluctant to tell their true feelings, because they're going to have to go against some strongly held moral beliefs to vote for a real scumbag. That's easier to do in private than it is in public.

      I really hope I'm wrong though, because if Democrats are ever going to make inroads in the gerrymandered house, we're going to need them to win a few districts here and there like this one, which is easier as an incumbent. Incumbency is powerful if you can get entrenched, even when demographics don't favor you.

      •  It sounds like you're bringing up (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, terjeanderson

        The "Bradley Effect" in a sense.  Or something similar to it.  This has been debunked time and time again.  People are for the most part honest in polling, even if the candidate is very embarrassing.  

        I had a feeling Mourdock and Akin were going to outperform polling last year, as I thought some people would vote for them and be too embarrassed to admit it.  But in the end I was wrong and those two lost by about what the polls suggested.  Heck, I think Akin lost by more than what most polls had him losing by to McCaskill.  

        •  Bradley effect (0+ / 0-)

          I thought that it was shown, repeatedly, that the Bradley effect doesn't work anymore nowadays - but was it really "debunked," in the sense that it was never true in the first place? I thought that it's still accepted as explanation for what happened in the original Bradley race. But I admit I'm going on memory here.

          The British equivalent for a long time was the "shy Tory" vote - more people would vote for the Tories than would confess to it to the pollsters. I just know of the concept, haven't fact-checked it. It does seem like the far-right in my country of origin (Holland) always does somewhat better in the actual elections than in the polls right before.

          •  It is true for the far-right (0+ / 0-)

            I've noticed this in quite a few Euro elections. The fascist Greek Golden Dawn party nearly won double the support polls showed in the last election.

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