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View Diary: U.S. Selling Israel "Advanced Refueling Tanker Planes" Needed for Iran Strike in New Arms Deal (69 comments)

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  •  Excellent Analysis!!! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Quicklund

    Ill add that the Iranians are NOT the Iraqis.  Unlike Saddam, they have not put all their eggs in one basket in the middle of the desert.  The Iranian program is spread out over a vast array of facilities, many of which are located in or near large towns.  Any strike would need to hit them all to ensure success.  Additionally the hardened nature of the facilities would require lots of explosive power and result in tremendous collateral damage.  It would be a PR nightmare if it was successful and the chances of success are very very very low.  The Israelis are not idiots and are not going to risk their very existence as a nation on a low probability of success act.

    It is well that war is so terrible -- lest we should grow too fond of it. Robert E. Lee

    by ksuwildkat on Mon Apr 22, 2013 at 07:30:57 PM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  They will risk it (0+ / 0-)

      as soon as their intelligence indicates that Iran is close to having a nuclear weapon. The "wipe of the map" comment changed the whole ballgame.

      And don't give me the nonsense that Ahmadinejad didn't say it. His own government's official translation had it that way, and that was enough for the rest of the world. Iran may regret such jingoism. (And why is it that only Israel gets blasted here for jingoism?)

      •  I dont think you understand (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        PrahaPartizan, AoT

        the size of the task.  

        Its 200 aircraft to do it on the cheap.  If I were planning it I would used 300 plus another 100 just to do the SEAD (Suppression of enemy air defense).  Back that up with about 200 cruise missiles for insurance and to cover egress.

        Those 200-300 aircraft need to be coordinated so they strike almost at the exact same time.  That means taking off from somewhere close and airborne C2.  That means either from the Gulf (aircraft carrier) or a Gulf state.  They have no aircraft carrier so they are down to finding a Gulf state that will let them use facilities.

        Since Israel lacks the assets to do the mission on their own, they would require partners.

        There is one country on the planet that can do this on their own.  Vote carefully.

        It is well that war is so terrible -- lest we should grow too fond of it. Robert E. Lee

        by ksuwildkat on Tue Apr 23, 2013 at 10:10:27 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

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