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View Diary: Washington Post: Sources say Max Baucus retiring in 2014 (203 comments)

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  •  Schweitzer (0+ / 0-)

    has a .97% chance of wining a presidential primary election in 2016.

    We only think nothing goes without saying.

    by Hamtree on Tue Apr 23, 2013 at 08:09:31 AM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  If Hillary runs, yes. (0+ / 0-)

      If not, he's got as good a shot as any likely candidate.  Who else would be significantly more likely?

      •  O'Malley will do better in the primary than (0+ / 0-)

        Schweitzer. Hillary and Schweitzer will split the conservative Dem vote leaving the liberal Dem vote all to O'Malley. He will also appeal to more of the base than Schweitzer will.

        President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

        by askew on Tue Apr 23, 2013 at 11:00:10 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  O'Malley is a decent candidate (0+ / 0-)

          I don't think you scenario will follow if Hilary runs -- she seems to have won over all but perhaps the farthest left of the party's liberal wing.  Deserving or not, she's seen by most in the party as a pretty progressive now.

          Basically this is how I see it playing it: if Hilary runs, we have a VERY short primary.  Schweitzer and O'Malley would both be on the VP shortlist (though I believe Hilary will be comfortable she's wrapped up the base and lean towards a more conservative option.)  Though they are on the shortlist, they are far from the only ones.

          If Hilary doesn't run (which I think is actually a real possibility) there will be a bit of a vacuum.  There are countless candidates who could fill that vacuum, including Schweitzer and O'Malley.  They also include Warner, Biden, Cuomo (who will flame out), and probably half a dozen others that I can't even think of at the moment.

          As for Schweitzer being too conservative, though he is empirically more conservative than most in the party, he seems to poll pretty well here at KOS, and we are hardly the blue dog caucus.  He's staked out very good positions on health care and other issues that offset some like his stance on gun control.  And he can give a very populist, barn burning, speech.

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