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View Diary: CO2 edges above 400 ppm (151 comments)

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  •  It's taken 55 years... (11+ / 0-)

    ...to get from 315 ppmv to 400 ppmv.  How long should we reckon before we hit 500 ppmv --- maybe 20 years or so?

    Proponents of gun violence own guns. Opponents of gun violence do not own guns. What part of this do you not understand?

    by Liberal Panzer on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 10:38:21 AM PDT

    •  The concentration has been edging upwork (19+ / 0-)

      like clockwork at 2 to 3 ppm per year, so it's more like 33 to 50 years.

      The ocean is doing yeoman duty in sucking up lots of the CO2 - but in the process is rapidly acidifying that may very well be the most dire effect of "climate change"

      Really who gives a fuck if Florida is completely underwater - I know I don't.  But if the ocean's diatoms can no longer produce oxygen for me to breathe, then I'll get a tad concerned . ..

    •  About 2050 (9+ / 0-)

      ... if the current acceleration continues. And so far, there isn't the slightest sign of it slowing down.

      We are all in the same boat on a stormy sea, and we owe each other a terrible loyalty. -- G.K. Chesterton

      by Keith Pickering on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 10:45:20 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I would be 100 years old then. (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Puddytat, 6412093, Ice Blue, Barton Funk

        A lot of countries are discovering frackable natural gas. The last country I heard of in this regard is Poland. Apparently, it thinks that it may be completely energy independent before too long through fracking. The question is whether gas is a significant improvement over coal.

        For if there is a sin against life, it consists perhaps not so much in despairing of life as in hoping for another life and in eluding the implacable grandeur of this life. - Albert Camus

        by Anne Elk on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 12:08:21 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Gas is an improvement over coal (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          catfood, Barton Funk

          provided the gas well drilling is done safely.  In recent years the US carbon emissions have fallen slightly, because we've switched some power generation from coal to gas.

          I'm hoping China gets their own gas fields opened up soon and burns less coal, while they gear up their wind, solar, nuclear and hydro capacities.

          I think the biggest obstacle to getting folks concerned about global warming is that no one is willing to honestly describe the drastic measures it will take to stop it.

          Namely, fighting global warming means an end to the cheap energy that has raised the standard of living around the world.

          Really fighting global warming, if mishandled,  means risking the descent of billions of people into lives where everything from electricity, water, medical care, and food to transportation, trade and entertainment become much more expensive or unobtainable.

          Orly, it isn't evidence just because you downloaded it from the internet.

          by 6412093 on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 01:22:05 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  China is worse than Texas when it comes to (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            New Rule, 6412093, Barton Funk

            enforcing their regulations.  I hope they don't let their operators screw up their fracking, too.  Maybe it will help if it comes from on high that there will be repercussions for cutting corners...as in 9mm repercussions.  They're China.  They can do that.

            Any jackass can kick down a barn, but it takes a good carpenter to build one.--Sam Rayburn

            by Ice Blue on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 01:56:43 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  Gotta love those qualifications. (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            kamarvt, Barton Funk, Calamity Jean

            "Provided it's done safely." Fat chance in the current regulatory structure. For just a "slight improvement."

            "If mishandled." Well, not fighting global warming requires no such qualification to the resulting descent of billions of people into miserable living conditions, the high price of "cheap energy."

            We've got the brains to technologically address our energy needs and get off CO2 without crashing standards of living, what's missing is the political will.

            (Slight license taken with the quotation marks, don't think I've misrepresented things.)

          •  Only if it doesn't leak (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Calamity Jean

            Methane is far more potent than CO2 so any leaking will offset combustion efficiency

            Touch all that arises with a spirit of compassion

            by Mindful Nature on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 07:15:23 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  That's a big fucking provision. You (0+ / 0-)

            might want to add "provided" it's done in someone else's backyard. I'm on the verge of being that someone, given fracking has just been legalized in my region. Would you like to tell me about where and when it has been done safely in the US?

        •  102 for me...yet still we care. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Barton Funk
    •  Wrong question (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      radmul, Klusterpuck, Barton Funk

      How long to 450 ppm?  Because from the guesstimates I've read, that's when things really go to hell.

      We'll probably never going to get to 500 ppm.

    •  450ppm in 20 years . . . (11+ / 0-)

      after that it's out of our hands, because "natural" sources (permafrost, clathrates) will rise to swamp human emissions.

      That 450ppm is already "baked in" . . . simply continuing operation of existing and under construction power plants and transportation hardware guarantees it.

      Fake Left, Drive Right . . . not my idea of a Democrat . . .

      by Deward Hastings on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 11:49:35 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Regardless of what we do; (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        kamarvt, wonmug, Barton Funk, adrianrf

        even if we were to commit "right now" to stopping," we're going to roll right past 450ppmv in 15-20 years.  It'd take that long to get everyone to (1) agree to shut 'er down, and (2) bring alternatives energy sources online.  That dog don't hunt, people.  It depends on an idyllic situation that the profiteers will do everything in their power to prevent.  Now, add to that what we'll produce, carbon-wise, over the next 20 years ... and the new coalburners that'll be online soon ... and the exponential models that keep going more exponential ... and the sequestered carbon that'll be released ... and the fact that some folk still think that the ocean can go on absorbing carbon almost ad infinitum ... and 500 ppmv becomes a reasonable probability w/in 20 years.

        Proponents of gun violence own guns. Opponents of gun violence do not own guns. What part of this do you not understand?

        by Liberal Panzer on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 02:16:30 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yep (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Barton Funk

          We're pretty much already fucked. We need to just admit to ourselves that we're fucked so that we can start working out how we're going to survive and preserve our civilizations.

          "Let’s just move on, treat everybody with firmness, fairness, dignity, compassion and respect. Let’s be Marines." - Sgt. Maj Michael Barrett on DADT repeal

          by kyril on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 02:33:40 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  I'm thinking when the Permafrost starts to (5+ / 0-)

      thaw enough so that bacterial decaying action can really start going strong then the heat of that will melt the Permafrost extremely fast for what I mean when someone mows the grass and fulls up a dumpster or even put the grass clippings it in a pile in a day or two stick your arm in it you can feel how hot it is.Just a week ago I mowed and filled up the yard-waste bin and a few days later I was moving it out to the curb and just to see how hot it was I tried to stick my arm into the center of the bin but it wasn't possible the heat just a few inches in was hotter than than I could stand and when I used a stick to expose the deeper stuff an Steam was coming off of it(growing up in farm country everyone knew not to bail and put even slightly damp or a little bit green hay in the Barn cause it runs the very great risk of burning the barn down as it did many times in the area cause of a framer being in a hurry to bail an not letting the grass dry out enough or it got wet from rain and put it up anyway),now just think of the internal heat of decay in Mega-Cubic Miles of Perm-frost taking over from the comparability slow heat transfer of surface heating of the Sun and warmer Air in the Arctic because of the insulating properties inherent with packed material like the Dirt,Soil and Plant matter that makes up so much of Permafrost now being changed over to the internal heating effect of decay in that very plant matter.

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