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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 4/29 (361 comments)

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  •  Gettable districts, looking at past results (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    redrelic17, ArkDem14

    seem to be SD-10 and SD-26.

    "It is the stillest words that bring on the storm. Thoughts that come on doves' feet guide the world." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

    by KingofSpades on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 11:28:23 AM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  kinda (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      skibum59, KingofSpades, Adam B

      District 10 is very Republican downballot, because of upper Bucks. District 6 containing Bensalem is much more likely to flip, but I am not sure if the Republican is entrenched.

      In district 26, it is very marginal on paper, but Delco Dems are poor with candidate recruitment.  

      A more realistic target is district 16, the Allentown district. If Latinos turn out strongly, the seat can be won, as it is outright Dem leaning.

      In 2016, the Johnstown seat is very vulnerable, as conservadem areas are losing population fast and Bedford County is growing. Perhaps Hillary on the ticket will help counter this.

      Also, assuming the commission map gets enacted, one Pittsburgh based seat is eliminated and moved across the state to Monroe County, which is surprisingly Republican downballot.  

    •  Pittsburgh (0+ / 0-)

      Allegheny County will have to lose 1 senate seat no matter what because of population loss, so Dems will lose a sure-win seat in 2014 and have to try to win a tossup open seat somewhere else, probably in NEPA.

    •  also (0+ / 0-)

      Bedford county gave Romney a whopping 77% of the vote. Sen. Wozniak would have definitely lost in 2012 under the new map.

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