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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 5/3 (246 comments)

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  •  I'll say a loss by 6 to 8 (4+ / 0-)

    As well as a loss by 6 to 8 in Kentucky and probably 10 to 15 in West Virginia.

    If Cruz or Rubio is the nominee, though, I think she can win all three.

    23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

    by wwmiv on Fri May 03, 2013 at 04:27:57 PM PDT

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    •  agree for Cruz but not Rubio (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jncca, MichaelNY

      Cruz would be really abrasive and alienate a lot of people, especially older white women. Rubio would be respectful and come off as a nice enough guy, and hold most of the usual GOP vote.

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Fri May 03, 2013 at 04:41:14 PM PDT

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      •  They're both Latino (0+ / 0-)

        It isn't at all about their personalities, it is about their ethnic group. As horrible as it is, these three states have decent portions that simply won't vote for a minority candidate - combine that with Hillary's unique appeal to these areas (not anywhere near her husband's, but better than almost any other national Democrat we could run), and you have a recipe for a Dem win in all three.

        23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

        by wwmiv on Fri May 03, 2013 at 04:45:43 PM PDT

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        •  I think you're overstating the racist vote (4+ / 0-)

          SC-1 has voted for Tim Scott, OK-4 has voted for JC Watts, WV-3 has an Arab in office who wins conservaDems.  Sure, race will hurt Rubio a bit, but:
          1) I bet being Hispanic hurts less than being Black and
          2) Tea Party Republicans will still by and large vote Republican regardless of race, especially if it's Cruz whom talk show hosts will be heavily pushing.

          Coal is what kills us in West Virginia, and Hillary isn't changing that.  I would guess the PVIs of each state are:
          Arkansas: R+8
          West Virginia: R+11
          Kentucky: R+9

          20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
          politicohen.com
          Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
          UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

          by jncca on Fri May 03, 2013 at 05:01:59 PM PDT

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        •  We don't need those states (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          and shouldn't waste our time their either. They will stay in the GOP column.

          The states Im focused on are the blue states that will have GOP senators running for re-election, that IMO won't be able to win with her on the top of the ticket. Cause there's going to to be alot of straight ticket voting in those states, when it comes to the Presidential and Senate race.

          Illinois: Kirk, should not even waste his time and just retire cause he'll get destroyed by whoever the Dem is.

          Wisconsin: Johnson is a one termer.

          Pennsylvania: Toomey won't win against a Kane or Sestak (both of them Clinton loyalist). So what if he voted for background checks. He voted no on all the other gun measures. He's been wrong on all the other issues. He can be all slick and portray himself as a moderate to cover up his hard right stances. He'll have to run on that record in a increasingly blue state, that's not going to change anytime soon.

          New Hampshire: Ayotte deserves the heat she's taking, she's nothing but a neoCon, who pulled an okie doke on the people of New Hampshire, and is now getting exposed for what she is.

          North Carolina: It's a purple state, but it will be interesting to see how toxic McCrory and the state GOP will affect the whole GOP ticket that year. I don't believe Burr will have an easy race.

          NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

          by BKGyptian89 on Fri May 03, 2013 at 06:00:31 PM PDT

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          •  Toomey (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            jncca

            I think you're seriously underrating his chances. His leadership on the background check bill was very shrewd, and Pennsylvania isn't that liberal.

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Fri May 03, 2013 at 06:40:22 PM PDT

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            •  Yeah he so shrewd (0+ / 0-)

              A very watered down background check bill. That he still couldn't even get his fellow Repubs to get on board. He's such an effective legislator.

              NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

              by BKGyptian89 on Fri May 03, 2013 at 06:48:10 PM PDT

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              •  He's so shrewd that he has +15 approvals in a (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                purple state.

                20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                politicohen.com
                Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
                UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

                by jncca on Fri May 03, 2013 at 06:56:51 PM PDT

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                •  I dont care (0+ / 0-)

                  He got a 5 point bump. So what.

                  NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

                  by BKGyptian89 on Fri May 03, 2013 at 07:02:36 PM PDT

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                •  And would not classify PA as a purple state (0+ / 0-)

                  certainly not at the Presidential, Gov and legislative then yeah.

                  NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

                  by BKGyptian89 on Fri May 03, 2013 at 07:10:18 PM PDT

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                  •  It's like D+1 or D+2 (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY

                    It's more purple than North Carolina.  
                    And I care, because incumbents with +15 approval in semi-purple or purple states don't lose.  Period.

                    20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                    politicohen.com
                    Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
                    UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

                    by jncca on Fri May 03, 2013 at 07:23:53 PM PDT

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                    •  Look Im not going to get into an argument (0+ / 0-)

                      the man is not invincible and likely his going to have a tough race come 2016. Those approvals will start coming back down to earth.

                      NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

                      by BKGyptian89 on Fri May 03, 2013 at 07:30:30 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  We shall see (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        jncca

                        You may be right, but I think it is not wise to assume so, and whoever his opponent is would have to run a very good campaign to defeat him.

                        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                        by MichaelNY on Fri May 03, 2013 at 07:32:29 PM PDT

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                      •  I think you have a lot of optimism with no (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        MichaelNY

                        evidence.  On DKE we use evidence.

                        20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                        politicohen.com
                        Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
                        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

                        by jncca on Fri May 03, 2013 at 08:25:33 PM PDT

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                        •  Yeah there's no polls out on that race (0+ / 0-)

                          so im just going on logic due to him barely squeaking by in a very GOP yr, he'll won't be fortunate in a Prez yr to have that same luck. So Im just basing it on the lean of state, being that it will be a Presidential yr, and a credible Dem will have a good shot. Which I think is a reasonable view.

                          But he's not invincible, which I have the feeling you making him out to be. That my only issue I have.

                          NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

                          by BKGyptian89 on Fri May 03, 2013 at 08:34:34 PM PDT

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                          •  If you act like you're certain he's going to lose (0+ / 0-)

                            that doesn't make those of us who demur believers in his being "invincible." There's a very wide middle ground between those two extremes.

                            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                            by MichaelNY on Fri May 03, 2013 at 09:08:07 PM PDT

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