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View Diary: Stephen Wolf's First 2014 Senate Race Ratings (45 comments)

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  •  Much of it depends on recruitment (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY

    Schweitzer running would make me move Montana to leans with Michigan and Iowa. North Carolina and Louisiana are somewhere between that and tilting Democratic. Begich is definitely closer to tilts. Without polling in Arkansas I believe Pryor is no better than tilts and is in big trouble whoever he faces.

    I think South Dakota only tilts Republican if SHS runs but West Virginia at least leans to them whoever is found to face Capito. I've got Kentucky and Georgia in that category. I don't think anything else is competitive, at least for now.

    Down 3-5 seats as of today. But given my misplaced pessimism of the last couple cycles maybe you could argue 2-4.

    "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

    by conspiracy on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 10:22:15 AM PDT

    •  I do think it depends on Schweitzer in Montana if (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, drhoosierdem

      he ends up pulling the trigger, but I'm highly inclined to believe he will thus the Lean D rating. If not then it's just a tossup. Our bench is incredibly deep and supreme court chief justice  Mike McGrath is very popular indeed and a likely candidate should Schweitzer not run. Republicans' bench also sucks here as Daines and Fox were just elected and would look very opportunistic if they ran. I think we could hold it with McGrath, but Schweitzer updating his campaign website tells me he's running. You don't update it with "volunteer" and "from Montana, for Montana" if you aren't running for anything or if you're laying the groundwork for a presidential bid. He has to know he has fantastic poll numbers.

      •  I think you are probably right (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Hopefully he makes it official soon. I agree if he doesn't run it can still be held with somebody else.

        "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

        by conspiracy on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 10:37:52 AM PDT

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    •  I just can't imagine (2+ / 0-)
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      KingofSpades, MichaelNY

      Capito goes scott-free through a Republican primary. She's a somewhat pro-choice, moderate Republican in a state with an extremely conservative Republican electorate (because most voters are registered Democrats).

      I could see some insurgent conservative, some far-right tea party backed businessman, beating Capito in the primary to blow the general election to a conservative, well-connected Democrat.

      And I'm not unfounded in this. Republicans essentially did this in muffing DE-SEN, and had similiar dynamics in NV and CO.

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 10:50:32 AM PDT

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      •  Perhaps, but her voting record is party line R (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        nothing moderate about it. She's just not frothing at the mouth. This is one state where the Ryan budget should hurt given how elderly and reliant on government it is, especially if Preservati is our nominee and coal backs him big. PPP didn't give crosstabs but their last poll from (ugh) all the way back in October of 2011 had her at 53/28 statewide. They really ought to go back into the field here and I don't understand why they haven't yet. I think it's a good bet to assume she'll win the primary as there's no one of stature to challenge her and even Raese didn't knock off a more electable candidate.

        •  This is the problem . . . (1+ / 0-)
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          MichaelNY

          . . . when, out of both sides, only one significant candidate steps forward to run. There need to be more candidates on the R side, and, damnit, we need to coalesce around someone on our side. Our only chance to hold onto this seat is to pull a McCaskill and ratf*ck the other side. But we can't do that without a strong candidate of our own.

          30, chick, Jewish, solid progressive, NY-14 currently, FL-22 native, went to school in IL-01. "We need less of that War on Women, and more of that Warren woman!"-- writer Paul Myers.

          by The Caped Composer on Tue Apr 30, 2013 at 03:20:45 PM PDT

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      •  Not out of the question (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

        by conspiracy on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 11:11:23 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

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