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View Diary: Stephen Wolf's First 2014 Senate Race Ratings (45 comments)

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  •  I agree with all your ratings (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Stephen Wolf, MichaelNY

    And thank you for being willing to call safe races "safe", rather than slotting things like OR-Sen, CO-Sen, NM-Sen, and NH-Sen in Likely Dem by default.  Just going by the fundamentals (purple-ish states, freshmen, elected in a wave year), they could be vulnerable, but I just don't see it happening in any of them.  Larry Sabato actually has NH-Sen as only "Leans Dem", in the same category with AR-Sen.  There's other oddities, such as HI-Sen being only "Likely Dem".  Amusingly, he only has 4 races as Safe Dem, not even considering MA-Sen to be safe for our side.

    •  In general I try to get things as far away from (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Zack from the SFV, MichaelNY

      tossup as possible because I feel it's a cop out to do just what you said. That isn't to say I'm going to have no tossups or no lean/Likely, but let's face it, Nebraska is safe R, Massachusetts without Brown is safe D.

      Having Hawaii as anything other than safe for any statewide race is a joke. That to me suggests either you're trying to sensationalize things or less likely you're incompetent.

      •  Especially after last year (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Stephen Wolf, MichaelNY

        When Charlie Cook and others were concern trolling about Lingle vs Hirono virtually the whole election cycle.  

        It'll be a cold day in hell when the GOP wins a senate seat in HI.

        26, OH-16, fiscal moderate, foreign policy liberal, social libertarian 2012 Daily Kos Elections Pick'Em Champion

        by StephenCLE on Tue Apr 30, 2013 at 07:37:25 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

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