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View Diary: Marriage equality polling well in Oregon, 18 months out (20 comments)

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  •  Good, but we're at below 50% ... (8+ / 0-)

    Same-sex marriage is one of those issues where poll respondents who say they're "undecided" or refuse to answer are overwhelmingly opposed to us.

    For example, the last poll in Maine in 2009 had us "winning" 47-45 - and we lost the election 53-47.  When we went back to the ballot in Maine, there was never a single poll with us at below 50% - and we won.

    Of course, I never thought we would win Minnesota - because every poll had us at below 50%.  But the very last poll in MN before the election had us ahead at 52-45, and we won the election 52-48 - in part because we produced abnormal turnout.

    We're 18 months ahead, and we're almost at 50%.  But clearly, a lot of on-the-ground work will need to be done to have one-on-one conversations with "persuadable" voters.  That's why donating this early to Oregon United for Marraige will be so critical.

    •  That initial point does not appear to be (1+ / 0-)
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      In effect any more.  We have finally reached a tipping point where a plurality lacking clear majority support no longer necessarily seems to ensure a loss at the ballot box if the support still outweighs the opposition.

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