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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 5/8 (461 comments)

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  •  VA-Pres: Clinton leads McDonnell 52-41% (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    redrelic17, James Allen

    with 7% undecided. McDonnell leads Biden 49-42&. 58% of Virginians do no want him to run for President.

    http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/...

    •  I don't think that would hold (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, MichaelNY, NMLib

      Easy for people to say this far out they'd vote for Hillary.

      But in October 2016, they won't still think or say that.  McDonnell would carry his own state absent some kind of scandal.  And the Star Scientific scandal hasn't really burned him to date.

      45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Wed May 08, 2013 at 07:05:09 AM PDT

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      •  Agreed (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        marieperoy, bythesea, MichaelNY

        Clinton's kind of at her peak favorable rating right now. Her popularity would fall if she got back into the political fray, the question is how much.

        Not that there arent legitimate questions about Benghazi, but I think most of the House focus now is really about Hillary Clinton and 2016. It's really the only thing about her own life/professional career that could affect a bid given how vetted she is.

      •  but will she actually win in Virginia against the (8+ / 0-)

        real Republican nominee?  Probably.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Wed May 08, 2013 at 08:14:34 AM PDT

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        •  That's all that matters (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          People are talking particular margins of victory, but truth is that if Obama can win the state twice, it'd be nearly impossible for Hillary not to win it.

          •  Obama was stronger in VA relative to the nation (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            DCCyclone, MichaelNY, askew

            than Hillary, by most accounts.  Black turnout + suburban Whites.  That's not Hillary's strength.

            20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
            politicohen.com
            Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
            UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

            by jncca on Wed May 08, 2013 at 06:33:01 PM PDT

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        •  Real nominee could be McDonnell, so no (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          No Democrat, except Mark Warner who I can't imagine winning our nomination, can beat McDonnell in Virginia if McDonnell's image stays unaffected by scandal.

          45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Wed May 08, 2013 at 06:50:25 PM PDT

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          •  I guess its a possibility (0+ / 0-)

            but I really don't see a boring guy like him being the nominee. He makes Mitt Romney seem exciting. Not against a Cruz, a Rubio, a Rand Paul.

            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

            by James Allen on Wed May 08, 2013 at 06:58:05 PM PDT

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            •  It's the GOP, not the Democrats (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              They like boring guys.  They nominate boring guys almost all the time.  Goldwater was a rabble-rouser, Reagan a Hollywood dude, but otherwise it's always boring white guys with them.

              McDonnell fits their pattern perfectly.  So would Mitch Daniels, or John Thune, or perhaps some others.

              Christie would break from the mold, stylistically, even though he's a white guy.

              Republicans like what is "safe."  McDonnell is safe.

              45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Wed May 08, 2013 at 08:48:49 PM PDT

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              •  I think the Tea Party throws that belief into (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY, sacman701

                question.  An increasing segment of the Republicans no longer like what is "safe."

                20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                politicohen.com
                Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
                UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

                by jncca on Wed May 08, 2013 at 09:57:34 PM PDT

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                •  They picked Romney! And who says... (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  ...they're still increasing?

                  Even last year they ended up nominating Romney, the boring and "safe" white guy.  There are plenty of Republicans who stuck with what's safe.  Anecdotally, there are plenty of people out there who were saying they liked the politics of someone else better, whether Newt or Bachmann or Santorum or whoever, but were supporting Romney because only he had any chance against Obama.  So electability ruled.  There was no one in reverse, no one saying "I prefer Romney personally but he can't win and [Santorum or Newt or Bachmann] can."

                  And the hard right teabaggers aren't growing in vote share in the GOP, I don't think.  I think their bloc is stable and more likely to shrink than grow.  They've lost enough for a few of them to be a little chastened even though they don't admit it.

                  I think the odds are strong that in 2016 the GOP again goes with someone "safe."  Christie is as far a break from the mold as I can see from them.  And it's why I don't think Rubio gets it, he departs from what's "safe" both in his persona and in his hard right politics.  Supporting immigration reform actually helps him in the latter regard, but of course hurts him in the former and also hurts him with his previously loving teabag supporters.

                  45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                  by DCCyclone on Thu May 09, 2013 at 09:05:18 AM PDT

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                  •  How are you seeing Christie as possible at all? nt (0+ / 0-)

                    Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                    by MichaelNY on Thu May 09, 2013 at 10:23:50 AM PDT

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                    •  Divided field. (0+ / 0-)

                      How was Romney possible at all?  Wingnuts divided, and not one of them was more than a clown candidate.

                      Christie's rivals will be bigger and stronger than Romney's, but as always it's a divided field.  He can always turn on the caustic Obama-bashing anytime (like he has in the past), and simply sustaining it can be enough to help some conservatives forget why they hate him.

                      The divided field is something everyone forgets.  You can win Iowa and New Hampshire and all these other states with a vote in the 30s.  You can lose almost two-thirds of your own party's primary voters and caucusgoers in so many states, including early states, and easily win the nomination because you kept getting 30-40% and the rest was split up.  In fact that's what happened the last couple times.  If there's no clear frontrunner, someone can slip through who seems vulnerable.

                      45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                      by DCCyclone on Thu May 09, 2013 at 08:34:54 PM PDT

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                      •  I'll believe it when I see it (0+ / 0-)

                        I think that the combination of his very significant and recent moderation, compared to his party, and his temper would sink him if he even tried to run for President in 2016, which I kind of doubt he will, despite his having a big enough ego to do so.

                        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                        by MichaelNY on Thu May 09, 2013 at 10:18:21 PM PDT

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                        •  What you say is very possible (0+ / 0-)

                          But again, if you can win some early states with  primary/caucus support in the mere 30s, and your rivals have their own warts to exploit that they have to defend, you can have some weaknesses and still win.

                          As far as Christie's temper goes, again, if he has the small amount of discipline needed to direct it all at Obama and Democrats, that can smother much else.  Christie's temper directed toward Democrats gets him attention, steals attention from others in his party, and makes the crazies respect him and like him.  He does that on a sustained basis, the wingnuts can become like Guy Pearce's character in Memento, unable to remember anything that happened more than 2 minutes ago.

                          45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                          by DCCyclone on Fri May 10, 2013 at 09:44:38 PM PDT

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