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View Diary: The economy is improving - just not for you (27 comments)

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  •  U6 went up, from 13.8% to 13.9% in April (4+ / 0-)

    Thats the wrong direction. About 21.4 million people. COunt everyone and you end up with 26 million people.

    AS far as job creation is concerned we used to spend 6-8% of GDP back in the days of the Great Republican Depression in the 1930's.

    Today, if you wanted to create 22.5 million jobs, you'd have to spend 900 billion in infrastructure. About 6% of GDP. Obamas stim was 1.7% of GPD.

    Returning to New Deal policy will return us to near full employment, and add enough FICA to make SS good thru 2090.

    Current economic policies seem concentrated on waiting for things to somehow magically get back to normal.
    If you mean keeping the status quo, yes you're right.
    I think we have reached a point in the recovery where things are not getting worse, As such weekly jobless claims are down and there is some minimal hiring.


    WE went double dip in 2012, and over the last 4 quarters averaged 1.8%. Over the last 13 quarters the trend is down, so no, I wont call that recovery when the trend is down,


    .................expect us......................... FDR 9-23-33, "If we cannot do this one way, we will do it another way. But do it we will.

    by Roger Fox on Thu May 09, 2013 at 07:55:12 PM PDT

    •  neutral (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      truong son traveler, Jim P, Sarenth

      I am looking at the most recent unemployment data (last few weeks) which seems to show a stabilization ... in that firms are not laying off, but also not hiring.

      I in no way think that there is any kind of real recovery. The anemic response to the massive stimulus is proof that all is not right. Take it away and all those corporate profits would go "poof".

      As for stimulus ... government deficits by definition are stimulus. So it is not just the stimulus package that counts, but the entire deficit ... so we have been running at 6+% for a couple of years already. But that is also part of the problem ... the Bush tax cuts and 2 wars had already started to dig a hole (he was stimulating before there was a recession).

      There's room at the top they're telling you still But first you must learn how to smile as you kill If you want to be like the folks on the hill

      by taonow on Thu May 09, 2013 at 08:09:22 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  the ARRA worked as advertised: Anemic? Not. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Jim P, aznavy

        170 billion bucks spent on infrastructure created a 4.2 million jobs, a 2.5 multiplier.

        Thats why when you hear the White House claiming 4.25 million jobs were created by early 2008, you know the stim worked. In the Campaign Obama cited 5.2 million jobs were created,

        170 billion is hardly massive, its 1.7% of GDP.

        In the 1930's Gov Spending went from 12% of GDP to 20% of GDP. so the New Deal cost 8% of GDP, and knocked down unemployment from 20% to 9.9% by early 1937.

        As for stimulus ... government deficits by definition are stimulus.
        SO the ARRA spent 830 billion, and created 20 million jobs? No it didnt. And trust me 50 billion for corporate tax breaks, aint stim.

        70 billion in income tax breaks for couples making 175k or more, isnt stim.

        100 billion for keeping teachers jobs aint stim.

        Were there other spending beyond infrastructure that stimulated the economy, sure, I'll give you that. The FICA holiday had a 1.1 multiplier. Unemployment insurance has about a 1.8 multiplier.

        The problem is that when a person loses a 40k job, and gets $550 a week in UI, its a net contraction.

        But overall about 5.2 million jobs were created in Obamas first term, and when you line up the ARA spending and where it went and assign multipliers, its clear that about 300- 320 billion had some level of stimulus.

        It should be quite clear that the whole 830 billion was not all stimulative.

        .................expect us......................... FDR 9-23-33, "If we cannot do this one way, we will do it another way. But do it we will.

        by Roger Fox on Thu May 09, 2013 at 08:44:17 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

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