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View Diary: Global Warming, Islam, and the US: Flashpoint Bangladesh? (70 comments)

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  •  Well ahead of mass migrations (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MrJayTee, marina

    will be the wars that make

    (a) leaving some countries and regions acutely necessary
    (b) will carve out openings in adjacent countries and regions

    The first will make the ecological issues worse.
    The second will make the ecological issues much worse.

    •  Any thoughts on probable hot spots? (0+ / 0-)

      Not an essay question, though it would make a great diary for anyone who's interested.

      A slower bleed-out is not a sustainable value.

      by MrJayTee on Mon May 13, 2013 at 07:12:30 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Easy. Anywhere there's water shortages now (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MrJayTee, LillithMc, marina

        And more people on the way.

        You an actually map the instability hot spots over the course of decades by relative water scarcity.

        For example, in the 1930s the worst risks were in Central Europe and East Asia.

        Guess what happened next - and where.

        Fast forward to the 2000s and you have a huge band of at-risk countries from North Africa across the entirety of Asia.

        It's going to be a much bigger war zone next time.

        Wait... it already is.

        •  Interesting, thanks. (0+ / 0-)

          A slower bleed-out is not a sustainable value.

          by MrJayTee on Mon May 13, 2013 at 07:32:24 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Given the size and military capabilities (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            marina, veritas curat, MrJayTee

            of some of the affected countries, yes, I'd say it's the Chinese sense of 'interesting'. As in living in interesting times.

            Never mind Bangladesh; both India AND Pakistan are vulnerable to climate change impact on monsoon patterns and overall temperatures. What happens to them, when the water supply is cut in half? Where do they go?

            But even those countries are small fry compared to the even more powerful People's Republic of China, also in the high-impact/high-risk zone. China has the muscle to arbitrarily have its way on international water rights issues (such as the Mekong watershed) and dare countries like Vietnam to make any noise about it.

            And the southern tier of Europe is at risk as well. AND experiencing significant declines in standard of living due to a economic triage rebranded as austerity. Political instability is a given on both sides of the Mediterranean now. Italy could go the way of Greece at any time.

            And, using an expansive definition of Europe, then we have Turkey AND Ukraine, likely destinations for refugees from the already war-torn Middle East, which has seemingly graduated to a kind of post-peace process world that actually treats Israel/Palestine issues as a boring sideshow....and is even more dangerous as a result.

            I think this entire band of countries is at risk of being depopulated at its own hands, with immense refugee migrations moving out of same to already-distressed neighboring regions - Europe, central and northern Asia, Oceania and an area people don't always think of as a refugee destination: Africa.

            It wont just be hundreds of millions relocating: It will be billions dying...and then hundreds of millions relocating.

            And wherever they go, a second generation of wars will spring up, and the process will repeat.

            Eventually, there will be nowhere new to run to and a lot, lot fewer living things of any variety on the planet.

            It is really just a question of how dark and deep the pit will be once we hit rock bottom.

            But it's too late to not fall in; we are already falling.

            •  Not being able to predict the future, I'm finding (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              cskendrick, MrJayTee

              myself, alas, in agreement with what you say here. I'd add to this that sources of rivers throughout most of Asia - if you follow a 360 degree circle around the mountainous regions in Central Asia, from Afghanistan through the Himalayas - is found in rapidly depleting glaciers. Billions of people depend upon those rivers.

              Just to add to the depth of the pit you're talking about.

              But we can't predict the future. The pit could be deeper than we imagine. It could also be shallower than we imagine. Nonetheless, physics, math and chemistry provide undeniable evidence that there will be a pit.

              With desolation in ten directions
              they move on.
              The world is a fishnet
              In an iron boat loaded with stone
              they row, claiming to know
              the secret. Crying “We float! We float!”
              they drown.

              - Kabir

              muddy water can best be cleared by leaving it alone

              by veritas curat on Mon May 13, 2013 at 12:06:51 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

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