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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 5/13 (431 comments)

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  •  I don't buy for one second... (16+ / 0-)

    ...that they are "relieved" SHS isn't running.  She's the sum total of the A-list.

    Brendan Johnson sounds like B-list at best, and even that might be overhype.

    Weiland definitely is C-list.

    If Weiland is the nominee, I'm ready to write off this seat even if Rounds loses a primary.  If he loses to Noem, Noem beats Weiland.  Someone worse than her would have to upset Rounds in the primary for us to have a shot.

    I'd long penciled in this seat as a loss, and indeed as our only near-certain one, moreso than WV.  I still see things the same way, including vis-a-vis WV.

    But it's still way early, and even 6 months from now will be pretty early.

    45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Mon May 13, 2013 at 07:48:27 AM PDT

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    •  Yep, Weiland seems to be DOA (6+ / 0-)

      I've already written it off, along with West Virginia. I think Democrats start out as even money or better in every other defensive Senate race this cycle.

      •  I agree with that (9+ / 0-)

        I had WV at no worse than a tossup early on, but now I have it as lean R because of the many months we've gone without being able to land a candidate.  That can certainly change, but struggle to recruit well is a bad sign in any given state.  That's the GOP's problem in Iowa (Whitaker is C-list), and it's our problem in West Virginia.

        But it really is still early, and there are wannabe teabaggings in both WV and SD, so I'm not completely writing off either if there's an off-chance some awful clown can steal a GOP nomination in one of them.

        45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Mon May 13, 2013 at 09:21:42 AM PDT

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    •  Yeah, there just is no bench whatsoever in (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      South Dakota... All statewide electeds are Republican aside from Johnson and only 7 out of 35 State Senators and 17 out of 70 house reps are Dems.

      Oh well hopefully Brendan Johnson can be persuaded to enter into politics down the track.

      Town Planner, 30 years Old, Election Junkie, "If you agree with Bush's economic policy, Cheney's foreign policy, and Santorum's social policy, you loved Romney's speech" - James Carville (aka the Ragin Cajun) on the Colbert Report

      by CF of Aus on Mon May 13, 2013 at 11:39:57 AM PDT

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    •  If anyone is relieved (4+ / 0-)

      by SHS not running, it's the GOP.

      That said, I wouldn't totally write this off yet, since if we're stuck with Rick Weiland (assuming Brendan Johnson or someone else with special appeal doesn't run) the party can unify around him and do what is needed to ensure he has the resources to campaign effectively.

      But I honestly don't get the deference to Weiland by many state Democrats.  While his unimpressive electoral record so far isn't necessarily a disqualifer, I don't see what merits an early closing of ranks around him, keeping out potentially stronger candidates.  I know the South Dakota Democratic bench isn't huge, but it should take more than "I used to work with Daschle" to lock up a nomination early.

      37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

      by Mike in MD on Mon May 13, 2013 at 11:40:18 AM PDT

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