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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 5/15 (293 comments)

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  •  As many noted last night (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ArkDem14, MichaelNY

    Very reminiscent of Alberta's last election.

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    by David Nir on Wed May 15, 2013 at 08:49:20 AM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  Even worse (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Because Alberta involved a brand new party predicted to win.  BC didn't.  Might be the most massive screw up in the history of polling.  A race with four parties who could win seats is doubling hard to get right than one with two.  But in this instance every poll, regardless of methodology, was wrong.  Has to be a problem with determine who will, and won't, turnout, and judging the likelihood of third and four party supporters in the poll jumping to one of the two major parties.  The latter helps explain the Liberal vote.  But doesn't explain why the NDP number was 4 to 6% below expectations.

      More analysis here:

      http://www.threehundredeight.com/...

      Keep the TVA public.

      by Paleo on Wed May 15, 2013 at 09:16:06 AM PDT

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      •  Allocating undecideds? (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ehstronghold, MichaelNY

        Canadian pollsters usually allocate undecideds by how they voted in the previous election, this would likely be more reliable in a two-party system, where if the undecideds were all Democrats or Republicans it would clearly indicate the race leans a particular way, but would most likely be more unreliable in multiparty systems where parties are less clearly divided into ideological blocs.

        (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

        by Setsuna Mudo on Wed May 15, 2013 at 11:39:40 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  "Brand New" (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        ... Wildrose has been around for a while.  An awful long while, if you take a look beyond the current shiny paint job;  quite a few of the original founders of the party are re-treads from the Social Credit Party, founded in the 30s.  Some of their policies even smell the same.  LOL

        There be no shelter, here. The front line is everywhere.

        by Wisewood on Thu May 16, 2013 at 07:59:02 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

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