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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 5/15 (293 comments)

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  •  This definitely seem like the election (1+ / 0-)
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    that breaks the GOP trend of "nominating the next in line." I think a lot of people thought that would happen in 2008, but it didnt.

    I could easily Ryan and Bush not running in 2016, and Rubio being affected by his support of immigration reform.

    •  I agree (6+ / 0-)

      I think this is the time the far right nominates "one of their own." Either Paul or Cruz won't run and the other will be the nominee and Hillary will kick his ass. She wins every state Obama did plus North Carolina and maybe Arizona. But she has major coattails especially Senate coattails.

      •  Rec'd for optimism! :) n/t (1+ / 0-)
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      •  I think she'd probably win Missouri (1+ / 0-)
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        and maybe even Indiana.

      •  Hope springs eternal (3+ / 0-)
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        WisJohn, JGibson, LordMike

        However, the pattern is for the GOP to nominate the relative moderate in every field, for the same reason: moderate & less conservative voters have fewer options and coalesce around one person usually, and that's about 35% of the GOP, enough to win. And typically, there are a handful of firebreathing types who split the vote of the other 2/3 of the electorate.

        Also, the GOP tends to use more moderate rhetoric when there's a better chance of winning, which would indicate someone more like Chris Christie or Jeb Bush in 2016. Though both would have fences to mend first.

        Cruz is an interesting prospect, but probably less appealing than Rubio and he might split the latter's votes. Paul is a nonstarter. He'll probably do better than his dad did last year though.

        •  2012 (3+ / 0-)

          I don't think that was really the case in 2012. Romney won, but he was the only one who any kind of fundraising or campaign organization and he had some very narrow wins in key states. I think a better-funded, better-organized rightwinger could have beaten him.

          SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

          by sacman701 on Wed May 15, 2013 at 01:15:19 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Jeb and Christie (0+ / 0-)

          Would be the two relative "moderates" in the field. I don't see either of them getting the nomination for different reasons. With Jeb, it would be 14 years since he last ran for office and 10 since he held office of any sort. And there's also that albatross of a last name although that latter may not be as much a detriment by 2016. I also don't think Rubio and Bush would both run and I think Rubio will be the one to do it. With Christie, he's had to do some things that were popular in NJ but won't play well with the GOP base and that'll doom him.

          I don't think Cruz and Rubio have the exact same base. Definitely some overlap but I think Cruz's biggest appeal is with the far right. I don't think Rand would be a non-starter. He's a much better politician and is significantly less iconoclastic than his dad.

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