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View Diary: Open thread for night owls: Climate change will displace hundreds of millions—soon (119 comments)

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  •  I've done several diaries here (8+ / 0-)

    on the inevitability of 450ppm within 20 years . . . to hardly any notice at all.  Even here on dKos (which I sort of saw as our last best hope) people don't take it seriously . . . it's all windmills and electric cars, as if that's going to fix everything.  Or "kill cows for climate", which is just too . . . bovine . . . for words.  I was half done with another diary on development plans for the Arctic Ocean (another bit of evidence that "they" damned well know what's coming, and don't plan to do anything to stop it), but shelved it . . . nobody (who hasn't figured it out themselves already) cares . . . at least not enough to do anything that would actually make a difference.

    It's a good day now if I can rise to mere pessimism.  The 1% are securing their lifeboats (arks, actually) and are fully prepared to let half the world's population sink.  Or more.  Don't need 'em . . . the machines will serve them better in the brave new world.

    Fake Left, Drive Right . . . not my idea of a Democrat . . .

    by Deward Hastings on Mon May 13, 2013 at 10:01:02 PM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  How do you go from 75 ppm in 50 years to (0+ / 0-)

      50 ppm in 20 years? The world is pretty much stuck around
      30 billion tons of CO2 per year.
      The world is running out of fossil fuel contrary to the hype
      even coal.
      Peak oil is real.

    •  Or, the people who really care about this stuff (5+ / 0-)

      aren't here all the time.

      I come to dkos for banter and news.

      I do my environmental activism in real life. I belong to groups and work on my own, am exerting pressure, writing checks, doing what I can. I don't sign Internet petitions. I call. I show up at offices. I write letters. I clear streams, talk to neighbors, plant trees....

      When I come here, I don't need to read another climate change diary. I was just rereading the most recent predictions about the effects on the Sacramento Delta and Valley. I just can't jump into more bad news every time someone here wants to write about it.

      I know it. I'm living it. I'm scurrying as fast as I can already.

      © grover


      So if you get hit by a bus tonight, would you be satisfied with how you spent today, your last day on earth? Live like tomorrow is never guaranteed, because it's not. -- Me.

      by grover on Mon May 13, 2013 at 11:07:00 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I understand that. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        grover

        California is an interesting case . . . parts of it might be able to survive.  Sea level rise is going to wreck the Delta sooner than most expect, and the whole Inland Sea will be restored before it's all over . . . but that's centuries from now.  In the near term it all hinges on weather . . . highly uncertain weather.  And water . . . highly uncertain water.  Without the snowpack to count on we should be building reservoirs in every plausible location . . . and not shipping water South.

        But you know all that, I'm sure . . . and know also that there is absolutely no will in Sacramento to "do the right thing".

        Fake Left, Drive Right . . . not my idea of a Democrat . . .

        by Deward Hastings on Mon May 13, 2013 at 11:55:34 PM PDT

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        •  I keep telling people that wine county (4+ / 0-)

          As we know it will be wiped off the map. That gets attention.

          Because of existing longtime flood concerns, FEMA has been working to elevate Sonoma homes so that they can better survive Normal flooding But you can't live like that even if your home is above water.

          Carneros sits at 7ft elevation. Vallejo will be a goner.

          The oldest vines wine country vines are planted on the hills: they were hidden there during prohibition. But many of those aren't the most popular varietals, like Pinot noir, which is relatively new to California, but Cabs and Zinfandels.  

          The loss of acreage of grape vines, hops, apples, dairy and other goods will be devastating to the country. Sonoma County is the 8th largest producer of agricultural goods. Napa, of course, is a top producing wine county. They both have large low-lying valleys where wineries, tasting rooms, storage facilities, restaurants, shops, and homes are located.

          Tell folks that Fairfield will flow away, and they kind of snicker that the Air Force can move out Jelly Belly's stock when it evacuates Travis AFB. And for thrmselves? They just shrug and say they and their boss will move to higher country, like Tahoe or Shasta.

          But they know instinctively (even if they don't drink) that you can't grow $300/bottle wine just anywhere and that the economy depends on that wine and the state depends on the taxes. These folks have never heard the word terroir but they know Napa is special. And most folks love Sonoma, home of Jack London.

          So I just chat with them about what we stand to lose and that at this stage, it really is inevitable, unless we get our government and industry to stop and BACK UP.

          Most folks think they're good environmentalists if they're recycling. I tell them that's true if this is 1977. Recycling is obligatory now. It's like owning a cell phone. It used to be cool. Now you just do it. And we talk about the next level.

          I'm always amazed how when pushed a little (told their current efforts aren't enough)  most folks are motivated to do more. Often they start slow. But they get kind of jazzed... And pretty soon, they're zealots, proselytizing to their friends and neighbors. The key is to find something people believe in.

          © grover


          So if you get hit by a bus tonight, would you be satisfied with how you spent today, your last day on earth? Live like tomorrow is never guaranteed, because it's not. -- Me.

          by grover on Tue May 14, 2013 at 01:19:23 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  There is no "future value" (0+ / 0-)

            in Foster City (which was a waterlogged marsh called "Brewers Island" when I was a kid).  But sea-level rise is a (relatively) long term thing (we'll still wait a lifetime to see the first 1-2 meters) . . . short term climate (AKA "weather") will change California agriculture before that.  Wine goes North . . . and is already developing as a "new industry" in Washington and BC.

            The problem for the well-intentioned people in Sonoma is that it's out of their hands now . . . it is truly "global" . . . and apart from too many silly cars Sonoma is no longer "at cause".  They could do everything right and nothing would change.  And apart from the weather, which is variable anyway, the next ten years will look more like the last ten than it will like Armageddon.  And there's the rub . . . here in Berkeley it's easy to look at a map and say "don't build West of San Pablo Ave. . . . there's no future in it" . . . but that's long-term.  We'll still be shopping at Berkeley Bowl West twenty years from now, and somebody will be in forty.  It probably wouldn't be there for the grand kids anyway (what is in America?) so just use it (the store, and the waterfront) while you can.  Building it wasn't a "bad investment" . . . it will serve out its intended (expected) life.

            Even Foster City will be OK (with a few more pumps, perhaps) for another twenty-thirty-forty years. It would be foolish to build it now, or even to add much to it, but I wonder at what point it becomes prudent to say "abandon it".  Not in my lifetime . . .

            Fake Left, Drive Right . . . not my idea of a Democrat . . .

            by Deward Hastings on Tue May 14, 2013 at 07:09:10 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  The thing is, I'm not talking to people (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              JeffW

              IN Sonoma. I'm using that as an example of how bad it's going to be. It's hard for folks to get motivated when they can't understand how bad it will be or what they can do to help.

              I outline it out for them carefully.

              And then tell them to get busy doing stuff like lobbying Congress, changing their ways, talking to neighbors, etc.

              If you're  right that its all a "just" huge global problem anyhow (when Americans are the biggest gross polluters) then we might as well just drive hummers and blast AC all year, and ignore the crisis. I refuse to give up.

              © grover


              So if you get hit by a bus tonight, would you be satisfied with how you spent today, your last day on earth? Live like tomorrow is never guaranteed, because it's not. -- Me.

              by grover on Tue May 14, 2013 at 09:46:06 AM PDT

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              •  I'm not (quite) giving up either . . . (0+ / 0-)

                but I won't invest much energy into things that won't do any good anyway.  Most of the "feel good" solutions make no meaningful contribution to resolving anything, and in many cases serve to defer potentially useful efforts even further.  Getting a Prius or an "all electric" (where do they think the electricity comes from?) car does nothing to encourage China and India and Poland to install nuclear instead of coal fired power plants (and the US to replace its own coal plants with nuclear).  Not that there's anything wrong with buying a Prius or a Leaf . . . but it will not have any impact on global warming.

                A gas tax is the best way to deal with the hummers (there are a lot of them in Sonoma, you know), and AC has a simple (and "teaching moment") solution . . . require all new installations be solar powered.  Short-term "actions" need to be linked to long-term strategy . . . and in the long term accommodation and limiting the damage are what we have left.  Actual remediation is so far from "on the table" that even mention of it is little more than a joke.

                Fake Left, Drive Right . . . not my idea of a Democrat . . .

                by Deward Hastings on Tue May 14, 2013 at 11:21:29 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

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