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View Diary: Maya Apocalypse and Prophecy: Computer Simulation (56 comments)

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  •  Thank you! The key is violence (0+ / 0-)

    as a response to shortages. In a disaggregated model, a different outcome would be possible only if there is a non-violent response to shortages somewhere, in one of the disaggregated pieces.  While not every local shortage would grow into a global shortage, there would be a critical threshold ensuring it did.

    Put another way, having 175 violent nations leads to the same result as one violent nation. If a shortage for one leads to shortage for another - if we enter a negative-sum game - the number of players is irrelevant. We would require a response that ended the negative-sum game to come from somewhere. The Maya effectively responded by reducing their requirements via reducing their population permanently.

    If Pakistan or Israel or Russia or China or America respond to a shortage - to anything - with a nuclear salvo, all Earth's nations will be in an irreversible shortage situation. Should we somehow manage to quell that tendency, we will still have the disturbance of global warming to confront, and the shortages that will cause as fertile land is flooded and becomes uninhabitable, and as viable crop habitats shift.

    All that said, I may well do a disaggregated model at some point, if there is sufficient interest ;-)

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