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View Diary: What PA Republicans Could Have Done: Devastating Maps of PA's Congressional & Legislative Districts (27 comments)

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  •  A few things about your map (0+ / 0-)

    First, your map is clearly not as clean as mine. Although this is not necessarily a bad thing, I was trying to show that 15-3 is possible even without splitting as many counties as you did.

    More specifically, I'm not a fan of how all four of Potter, Tioga, Bradford, and Susquehanna are split. If you could keep some of those counties whole, that would be much better. I also don't like how you split Centre three ways; I think the county should be kept whole due partly to its distinctive shape.

    Also, I wanted to keep Lehigh and Bucks both whole, and Northampton mostly whole.

    Your map is highly partisan and would be ruthlessly effective, but it seems like you were trying to split as many counties as possible. Try to keep Union, Franklin, and Carbon Counties whole. Also, you probably don't need to split Luzerne, as Barletta is from there and could probably win the county even if it was entirely in his district.

    (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

    by ProudNewEnglander on Sat May 18, 2013 at 03:58:38 PM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  Oh well sure, I never said it would look pretty (0+ / 0-)

      but the GOP was never going to go for a 15-3 map that left several of their seats vulnerable even under conditions such as 2012. When you're in the majority, expanding your gross number of seats is irrelevant and it's much more important to solidify everything you hold.

      That's why you saw a 13-5 in Pennsylvania, a 12-4 in Ohio, and a 7-2 in Indiana or even a 5-3 in Wisconsin when more seats probably could have been squeezed out. They'd rather forfeit those seats for a few cycles than risk far many more the next time there's a modest wave. As it's currently drawn we'd basically get a worthless nominal majority out of even a 2007 style wave, so Republicans in places like Ohio and Wisconsin in particular knew what they were doing.

      Anyway, I just posted this map because I think it's entirely better than what they passed as every single seat is quite solid and it gets them one more and shores up their most vulnerable seat (assuming Fitzpatrick goes ahead and retires, not a given). At worst it's easily possible to replace Cartwright with Holden in a conservative district and I think they needlessly ceded that seat and maybe it was due to Marino struggling to win an R+10 in a blowout in 2010. I think this map is if anything cleaner than what they'd pass and since I kept the 7th as is I wasn't going to go through the charade of unnecessarily preserving county lines when I could make the overall district lines look clean. I'd have given all of Centre County to the 10th if not for the fact that Thompson lives there, which requires splitting it due to its shape, but overall I was just going for a plausible map, not a nice looking one. If you can do a more solid 15-3 that's about as ugly as the actual map without venturing into baconmander territory, I'd love to see it, but I just don't think you can make every district solid while doing so as I think Schwartz would have easily won your 18th. Northeast Philly saw Obama underperform a good deal compared to how he did in the rest of the metro area, so when you have that district as D+3 or so, it really is going to vote like D+ district would and there's no way Schwartz loses it in anything other than a wave and even that's iffy. That more than any other district is why I wanted to see the average numbers. Once you realize that Schwartz is still going to win, why would it not be better to give her a vote sink that allows you to shore up all 4 of the other districts?

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