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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 5/20 (296 comments)

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  •  while we do have a good bench (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    misterklein, MichaelNY

    I'm skeptical on us holding the governor's mansion after Nixon retires the state seems to be continuing to move rightward (it's no longer a bellwether state). I just hope we don't have a repeat of what happened in OK 2010 (where all the statewides were lost)

    In fact, the occasional victory for the GOP cannot hide the fact that this country is fast heading into another era, not of two-party democracy, but a party-and-a-half system. And the GOP is the half a party- Larry Sabato

    by lordpet8 on Mon May 20, 2013 at 11:34:29 AM PDT

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    •  I don't believe the state will continue (0+ / 0-)

      to trend away from us. In fact I firmly believe Clinton would have a pretty good shot of winning it.

      •  I see Clinton winning it (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        skibum59, lordpet8, MichaelNY

        if she is winning by at least 7 points nationally.  A much better PVI than what Obama saw last year (winning by 4 nationally, but losing Missouri by 9), but still relatively redder than 2000, in which Gore won the popular vote by 0.5% but lost Missouri by 3.3%.

        So while the short-term 2016 election may see a blue shift in Missouri's PVI, I still think the long-term trends will hold of Missouri shifting to the right, and requiring larger and larger national margins for the Democratic nominee to win it.  Same goes for West Virginia...though that state would certainly respond better to Hillary Clinton than to Obama, we're kidding ourselves if we think WV is going to give her the kinds of margins it gave Bill Clinton.  In fact, I don't even think she (or any presidential Dem nominee) can win the state short of a total landslide anymore.

      •  Why do you think it won't continue to trend (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        aamail6, MichaelNY

        away from us?

        20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

        by jncca on Mon May 20, 2013 at 12:54:03 PM PDT

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        •  The rural areas of the state are shrinking. (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          wadingo, aamail6, ArkDem14, JBraden

          Last decade the urban areas were as well, but I completely expect a growth in St. Louis and and Kansas City. Also liberal haven Columbia saw some pretty strong growth last decade. It may not trend in our direction, but I don't believe it will continue to become more Republican.

          •  ... (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            skibum59, lordpet8, MichaelNY

            But the strongest - and only - growth in the state is in the very Republican suburban rings around the two cities.

            23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

            by wwmiv on Mon May 20, 2013 at 03:03:23 PM PDT

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            •  Suburban growth, on the other hand, doesn't equal (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              HoosierD42

              conservatism.  For decades, people have moved outward (a process which is somewhat reversing itself).  Considering suburbs are the only places that have had growth in the last generation or more, it's clear that not all suburban growth is conservative.

              20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
              politicohen.com
              Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
              UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

              by jncca on Mon May 20, 2013 at 03:39:31 PM PDT

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              •  On the whole, yes (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                But in this case, not really. Missouri's suburbs have generally stayed conservative and in some places become moreso.

                23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                by wwmiv on Mon May 20, 2013 at 04:38:10 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  How about the inner suburbs? (3+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  ArkDem14, James Allen, MichaelNY

                  St Louis County (not the city) has gotten bluer over the last couple decades, so I don't think what you're saying is completely true.  It seems to fit the national pattern (inner suburbs get more diverse and more liberal, outer suburbs are built and are conservative, and the process repeats)

                  20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                  politicohen.com
                  Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
                  UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

                  by jncca on Mon May 20, 2013 at 05:02:06 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

            •  Suburban rings that have gotten less (0+ / 0-)

              Republican, especially St. Charles and parts of St. Louis County. Also see Jackson County getting more and more Democratic, and heavy growth in Democratic trending Columbia county. The rural stalwart Republican areas are shrinking steadily, and they've maxed out at this point on all the former Dem rural territory.

              "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

              by ArkDem14 on Mon May 20, 2013 at 06:20:52 PM PDT

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              •  maybe in federal, but not in state elections. (0+ / 0-)

                ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                by James Allen on Mon May 20, 2013 at 09:34:55 PM PDT

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              •  Jefferson County (JeffCo) in Missouri, OTOH, (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                will become a swing to pinkish-red county in Presidential voting (if it hasn't already), while going towards light blue or swingish in statewide voting. In countywide offices, it will remain mostly Democratic.

    •  Well considering we won the statewide races (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      at about the same rate as we did in 2008 despite Obama not contesting it last year and tanking there, I wouldn't write off our chances in 2016 especially when the Republican bench really just consists of their auditor Tom Schweich and Attorney General is a lot more impressive.

      I doubt Clinton can win the state without a true landslide nationwide, but she won't get blown out there either.

    •  it will stop trending R at some point (7+ / 0-)

      New Mexico will probably never be as blue as Massachusetts and Missouri will probably never be as red as Wyoming.  Trends don't just keep trending forever.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Mon May 20, 2013 at 02:30:11 PM PDT

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      •  I agree (5+ / 0-)

        I can't see it going more than a couple points redder than the present but I'm not sure we can say it's done yet.  It'll take another 4 or 8 years to know.

        20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

        by jncca on Mon May 20, 2013 at 02:45:52 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

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