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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 5/21 (261 comments)

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  •  From the discussion above (12+ / 0-)

    of independent voting patterns, I went ahead and made a map shaded to show the size of the winning margins by state in 2008 if only independents voted.  While the only actual flips are Arizona, Kansas, Nebraska, and North Carolina, some of the shifts are still quite drastic in other states.


    (Click for full-size image)

    As you can see, Idaho and Utah are near tossups, as is New Jersey.  New Hampshire becomes one of the most Democratic states in the entire country, and North Carolina one of the most Republican.  Patterns are clearly noticeable, such as most of the South having extremely GOP-voting independents, yet the interior West independents being much more friendly to Democrats.  For the most part though, independent voting patterns do track the statewide margins, as the Northeast and West Coast independents are most Democratic, and Southern independents most Republican.

    However, another interesting map came about as I sought to compare independent voting margins directly to the actual statewide results in 2008.  The following map takes the independent voting margin and gives the difference with the actual result...blue meaning the independents voted more Dem than the state, red meaning the opposite.


    (Again, click for full-size image)

    Here it's even clearer just how relatively Democratic the interior West independents are.  North Carolina takes the prize at having the most relatively GOP-voting independents, as McCain won them by 21 points (while Obama narrowly carried the state).  Funny seeing Illinois having relatively GOP independents while Indiana's are relatively Dem.  Compared to the first map, you can see that independents in the two states actually voted about the same.  New Mexico wins the prize of having independents that exactly matched the statewide margin.  I also find it interesting that Maine, Vermont, and New Hampshire's independents shift those states to the left, whereas Massachusetts, Connecticut, and especially Rhode Island's independents shift those states to the right.

    •  nice (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      aamail6, MichaelNY

      It seems that in the south most self-identified indies are conservatives who left the Dems, while on the west coast and in the northeast most of them are Dem leaners who are too cool to identify as Dems.

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Tue May 21, 2013 at 03:24:16 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  The only time modern Utah is a swing state. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JBraden

      Still, it gives me hope. If Utah has so many independents, and they're only barely Republican, that's good. If the Utah Dems can capture a majority of independents and a few Republicans, then we win.

      Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

      by Gygaxian on Tue May 21, 2013 at 04:04:06 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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