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View Diary: Open thread for night owls: Two decades and still no definitive reason found for amphibian decline (58 comments)

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  •  Global Warming: +2 to +6 Degrees C (6+ / 0-)

    Australian climate scientists have now projected that Global Warming will increase the average Earth temperature by something within the range +2 to +6 degrees Celsius. Their models project that a +2C increase is now inevitable, which seems clear to most people who aren't simply deniers. Their upper limit of +6C isn't certain, and more research might raise it, but it probably does limit some of the higher previous research and open-ended trends.

    This is bad news.

    +2C is higher than the +1.5C that will release permafrost gases that will push the Greenhouse far past a tipping point of extreme warming.

    We've already raised temperatures +1.5C averaged across the globe. When Siberia eventually warms towards the average, it's game over. The runaway spiral will melt first the world's glaciers, then Greenland, then the Antarctic. The glaciers melting could destabilize the world enough to unleash a WMD war, possibly nuclear armageddon. Greenland melting would almost certainly do so, raising seas an average of +7 meters (23'), but extremes several meters higher, displacing hundreds of millions. The Antarctic will raise sealevels an average of +70 meters, +230', but extremes many meters higher - rendering coastlines and many river mouths unrecognizable. Along the way wars and other consequences like agricultural and infrastructure collapse (flooding, drought, invasive species and extinctions, etc) will collapse an already rickety civilization barely keeping it together and dependent on a constant flow of global goods and services.

    Good times :P.

    "When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro." - HST

    by DocGonzo on Mon May 27, 2013 at 09:38:49 PM PDT

    •  I'm "happy" someone is one the same page here... (0+ / 0-)

      ...as I am. Tragic as it is.

      It's over. The world is changed already, and will change drastically more further up the road.

      But all of this academia is really whistling past the graveyard. We must put all our resources into ensuring fresh, potable water for a population of 315 million and growing. That's just US.

      Without fresh potable water, there is nothing else. Prove me wrong.

      When the Tibetan Plateau dries out, and the great rivers which rise there and feed almost half of the world's population go away, China, India, Pakistan will exchange nukes over the remaining resources.

      Game over.

      Good luck, "sapiens."

      "Wealthy the Spirit which knows its own flight. Stealthy the Hunter who slays his own fright. Blessed is the Traveler who journeys the length of the Light."

      by CanisMaximus on Mon May 27, 2013 at 10:22:22 PM PDT

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      •  Water Water Everywhere (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        JeffW

        As the climate changes, there's going to be lots of fresh water in places it wasn't before - even as it disappears elsewhere. Overall there will be more water. It won't stay fresh long, as it rolls over places that don't let water stay clear.

        But there will be opportunities to adapt, and catch it. While elsewhere (and elsewhen) conservation will be newly forced or else no habitation.

        These changes, even the ones our past damage already commits us to, will come relatively slowly, over generations. Even though punctuated by relatively brief catastrophes, like droughts or floods for a few years between milder conditions. We have time to adapt. We even have time to slow the changes, and even slowly roll at least some of them back.

        If we change ourselves. If we don't, as you and I agree, "BOOM" and it's over. Hopefully it's dawning on enough different people each sensitive to the many different ways to go extinct, that change is necessary, their change.

        "When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro." - HST

        by DocGonzo on Tue May 28, 2013 at 05:25:01 AM PDT

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        •  Wish I could agree... (0+ / 0-)

          ...about the water. But I'm afraid with most of the world's fresh water reserves going into the ocean from melting ice, and nobody building cachement for the inevitable droughts, I'm sticking to Alaska. We'll have fresh water for at least 50-60 years.

          "Wealthy the Spirit which knows its own flight. Stealthy the Hunter who slays his own fright. Blessed is the Traveler who journeys the length of the Light."

          by CanisMaximus on Tue May 28, 2013 at 03:15:33 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

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