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View Diary: Elizabeth Warren, Markey's not-so-secret weapon (39 comments)

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  •  Cook (0+ / 0-)

    fell all over themselves saying that they don't think Gomez has a chance in hell, but they have to put it as a "tossup" because their methodology mandates that when the polling average is single digits.

    Seems like a generous definition of "tossup" to me. And the big reason Markey's not "pulling away" in polling is that we've had no polls released for two-and-a-half weeks, which strikes me as odd.

    But anyway, they don't really think it's a tossup.

    "I am not for a return to that definition of Liberty under which for many years a free people were being gradually regimented into the service of the privileged few." Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1934

    by fenway49 on Mon Jun 03, 2013 at 12:46:31 PM PDT

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    •  Then Cook folks are contradicting themselves (0+ / 0-)

      By the way of how you are describing Cook Reports' analysis.

      •  Their take (0+ / 0-)
        “In truth, we have had a difficult time accepting the idea that this race might get close,” writes Cook’s Jennifer Duffy, who made the call. “None of the circumstances that existed in early 2010 that paved the way for the upset that then-GOP state Sen. Scott Brown pulled over Democratic Attorney General Martha Coakley are present.”

        ...“We just see a polling trend that suggests it’s a single-digit race, and that’s our criteria,” Duffy tells me.

        "I am not for a return to that definition of Liberty under which for many years a free people were being gradually regimented into the service of the privileged few." Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1934

        by fenway49 on Mon Jun 03, 2013 at 01:36:00 PM PDT

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        •  But why even classify it as a toss-up then? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          fenway49

          I'm still not convinced.

          •  I'm not convinced either (0+ / 0-)

            I don't think that it is a "toss-up" in any meaningful sense, and from what Cook (or at least Jennifer Duffy) said, it doesn't seem like they think so themselves. Apparently a "single-digit" race = toss-up in their world.  

            I'm just passing on what they said to make clear that Cook does not have any special new information about the race being closer than we see it. Like I mentioned above, an 8- or 9-point race is not a "toss-up" in my book, and if any new polls would ever come out we might find Markey ahead by more than that. I think the movement's been much more in his direction than Gomez's.

            My guess: At the first sniff of a poll with Markey up 11 or more, they move it back to "Lean D."

            "I am not for a return to that definition of Liberty under which for many years a free people were being gradually regimented into the service of the privileged few." Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1934

            by fenway49 on Mon Jun 03, 2013 at 01:51:02 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

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