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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 6/10 (292 comments)

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  •  There's a special election in CT-HD-53 tomorrow (15+ / 0-)

    that is quite competitive, as befits the district. I happen to live in this district, so I have a particular interest in it.

    The district contains most of Tolland (15K) and all of Willington (6K) and Ashford (4.3K). In 2012, Tolland voted 51% for Obama, Willington voted 54% for Obama, and Ashford voted 61% for Obama.

    The seat became open when the previous incumbent, Bryan Hurlburt (D-Tolland) resigned to accept a job with the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Hurlburt was a 4-term incumbent who won 57% in 2008, 51% in 2010, and 62% in 2012. The Democratic candidate is Tony Horn of Ashford, who is a member of some board there. I don't know a heck of a lot about him, but he's been endorsed by both Hurlburt and CT LG Nancy Wyman, who is from Tolland.

    The Republican candidate is Sam Belsito of Tolland, and I know much more about him. He's about 20 years older than Horn, and he is a member of the Tolland Town Council, first elected in 2011. Before then, he was well known as a complainer who frequently showed up at Town Council meetings in order to whine about how much money was spent on necessary things (such as public schools). In 2011, he must have gotten tired of this complaining, since he ran for and won a seat on the Town Council. Since then, he has frequently voted no on important issues that would save taxpayers money, and he also frequently votes Present on important issues as well.

    Sam Belsito is substantially to the right of the district, and for a CT Republican he is very conservative. However, he is from Tolland, which contains about 60% of the population of the district. Horn is from Ashford, which contains only about 15% of the population of the district. In this low-turnout special, I am concerned that enough voters will vote for the name they recognize (Belsito) for Belsito to win.

    Both campaigns have sent out large numbers of mailers. Belsito's mailers don't mention Horn by name, and criticize the CT Democrats and Malloy more broadly. Horn has criticized Belsito by name for some of the votes he has cast on the Tolland Town Council.

    Horn will definitely win Ashford. He will also have to win Willington and substantially cut into Belsito's margin in Tolland if he wants to win. In 2010, which was a very close race, Hurlburt won 58% in Ashford, 49% in Tolland, and won Willington by two votes.

    I'll be watching this closely tomorrow evening.

    (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

    by ProudNewEnglander on Mon Jun 10, 2013 at 08:17:23 AM PDT

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