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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 6/14 (174 comments)

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  •  Agree it's an outlier, but Q is reputable (5+ / 0-)

    This isn't like Zogby or Harper where it's a junk pollster putting out crap.  Quinnipiac is a decent pollster that has a good reputation.  

    Doesn't mean they can't have bad polls: in fact, statistically every once in a while a good pollster will produce an outlier.  This poll may or may not be an outlier (I think it is) but Quinnipiac does deserve to be called a reputable pollster.  

    23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

    by Jeff Singer on Fri Jun 14, 2013 at 03:58:02 PM PDT

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    •  Cyclone and other here disagree (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, DCCyclone

      Quinnipiac's record over the last few cycles has been beneath average, and their share of outliers has been consistently high. Sure... they aren't complete junk like Zogby and Harper, but they aren't near as reputable as they used to be.

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Fri Jun 14, 2013 at 04:05:07 PM PDT

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      •  They were quite good in 2010 (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        wwmiv, SaoMagnifico, gabjoh

        Nate Silver had them as the most accurate pollster that year.  

        But you're right, they were mid-range 2012.  

        23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

        by Jeff Singer on Fri Jun 14, 2013 at 04:10:24 PM PDT

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      •  Yeah,, I'm "meh" on Q, but they deserve... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        gabjoh, Stephen Wolf

        ...more credit than so much other junk out there these days.  It's all relative, and when we have the likes of Harper and WAA and bad GOP internals shoved down our throats, Q looks great in comparison.

        But I don't buy this Q poll at all, this latest release underscores a bad sample.  Obama's job approval isn't going to be that much worse in a battleground like Colorado than the national average, absent something Colorado-specific getting him in trouble which doesn't exist.

        Same goes for that last Selzer poll of Iowa, Obama is not doing that badly in Iowa.

        45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Fri Jun 14, 2013 at 07:06:35 PM PDT

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        •  All pollsters have outliers (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          And even Rasmussen gets it right some of the time. Quinnipiac are above average but at this point rarely do they provide data that points in the right direction. Far too many undecided, far too many independents. The best example I can think of off the top of my head is them regularly having Lee Fisher with a decent lead over Rob Portman about now in 2009. And not to mention most everybody struggles to poll Colorado properly even on election eve.

          "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

          by conspiracy on Sat Jun 15, 2013 at 02:19:22 AM PDT

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