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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Weekly Open Thread: What races are you interested in? (360 comments)

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  •  AR-Gov (7+ / 0-)

    I'm kinda torn over who to support in this one. My heart says Halter, but my brain screams Ross. I'll probably go with Ross because in the end, Halter is far removed from being able to win statewide in Arkansas anymore. Mark Pryor would also happily march around campaigning arm-in-arm with Ross, while he wouldn't touch Halter with a ten-foot pole. Halter on the ballot with him could also drive down Indy and soft-con support for Pryor, which would probably mean us being down a valuable senate seat.

    Gay suburbanite in NJ-11 Rush Holt for Senate!

    by interstate73 on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 06:39:44 PM PDT

    •  How liberal is Halter? (0+ / 0-)
      •  Liberal enough that he ran to the left... (0+ / 0-)

        Of then-Sen. Lincoln in 2010. It's hard to escape a profile.

      •  Not all that liberal by any means (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        psychicpanda, Gygaxian, gabjoh, skibum59

        he didn't exactly run as the Alan Grayson of Arkansas in 2010 or anything; part of the reason why liberal groups supported him was because it was abundantly obvious that Lincoln was DOA and she acted like she didn't know how to act on Health Care and other major initiatives. He ran as slightly to her left and still right of center by national standards. I don't know what his reputation was in Arkansas then though he was decently popular before 2010 but probably not afterwards. I'm sure GradyDem could tell you more, but that was the whole gist of Dem support prior to 2010. Not that he was a Grayson type, but that Lincoln was unelectable and that if there was someone both to her left and less unelectable we might as well support her.

        I think given Arkansas' hard right turn since 2008, even Ross would struggle and that Halter can't win period, but since Arkansas is a state where the gubernatorial veto can be overridden by a simple majority I really can't care too much.

        •  Ross (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades

          I think Mike Ross can win with female voters who don't think it's a good idea to have a gun in every classroom.  Asa Hutchinson has repeatedly said some crazy things over the years and his voting record was nothing to be proud of.

          I know most people on here despise Mike Ross so you're right it is probably not a race that many people care about.  

    •  were you planning on getting involved? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Stephen Wolf

      If not, why worry?

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 07:50:29 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  My approach to this race is (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SaoMagnifico, lordpet8, skibum59

      the Arkansas governor's vetoes can be overridden by a simple (Republican) majority. The only reason this office is worth a warm bucket of spit is appointments. I wouldn't get too shaken up about losing it. We're screwed regardless and there are better races worth worrying about.

      •  Agreed (0+ / 0-)

        I've completely written off Arkansas except for Sen. Pryor, and I'd say he's 50-50 at best to retain his seat next year.

      •  The General Assembly is still closely divided: (5+ / 0-)

        51R, 48D, 1 Green (unless there have been any party switches following the 2012 election).  Also, there are term limits (6 years), so none of the current members will be in office after 2018.

        The trend has not been positive, but it is by no means certain that Republicans will control this chamber throughout the decade.

        Even in the State Senate, a 4 seat gain would give Democrats control again.

        •  If the Dem Party were not in shambles (0+ / 0-)

          it is possible that they could take back the House Majority.  But that would actually require organization and effort.  Apparently some of the seats held by Republicans are really blue, though.

        •  Why is the GOP being spineless? (0+ / 0-)

          The seat totals are currently close because the Democrats drew the lines in 2011. Redrawing the lines should have been their top priority in 2013, along with an omnibus bill of voter suppression tactics.

          •  Because they cannot do that (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Stephen Wolf

            only a once-a-decade panel made up of the Governor, A-G, and SoS can redistrict the legislature.  It was passed by referendum decades ago and is in the state constitution.

            "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

            by KingofSpades on Sat Jun 29, 2013 at 04:30:31 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  None of that has any bearing on the value (0+ / 0-)

          of a governor's office where the veto can be overridden by simple majority. If we want power in Arkansas it seems to me to be that the legislature should be our top priority and the lower tier statewide offices like AG after that. Unless I'm missing out on some hugely important appointment or other powers the governor has, someone without a veto might as well be appointed by the legislature.

          Either way, a liberal state government there is basically impossible, so as a national Democrat I can't get too worked up about it. Yes there are certainly differences between the conservative Democrats who used to rule and the conservative Republicans who currently do, but eventually those people will all start voting to elect Republicans and the interest groups that dominate the Republican party will ensure they pass conservative legislation.

          Plus as KingTag says, if the GOP re-redistricts the legislative lines we're screwed.

          •  Only a panel can redistrict the legislature (0+ / 0-)

            made up of the Gov., the A-G, and the SoS.  And they can only do it at the start of the decade.  It's in the state constitution.

            "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

            by KingofSpades on Sat Jun 29, 2013 at 04:29:15 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  There are three strong targets for Democrats (0+ / 0-)

          in the State Senate.  Rapert's (Republican incumbents in redder HDs in 2012 lost to Democrats for the level of racism and bigotry he has demonstrated), Caldwell's (Blanche Lincoln narrowly won that seat), and English's (we lost by only 300 votes in 2012).  Lesser targets include SD-6 and SD-28.  In 2014, Pryor and Ross should help bring in a decent amount of Dem votes and in 2016 (assuming HRC runs and wins the primary), Hillary should do likewise to a certain extent (I don't expect her to win, but I'd say she'd get 45%).

          "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

          by KingofSpades on Sat Jun 29, 2013 at 04:37:34 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I don't know about 45% (0+ / 0-)

            But I do think she'll get somewhere between 40% to 45%

            23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

            by wwmiv on Sat Jun 29, 2013 at 04:43:44 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

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