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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Weekly Open Thread: What races are you interested in? (360 comments)

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  •  she ran against a nobody that even (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, SaoMagnifico, CF of Aus

    the state GOP wouldn't touch.

    She won election for AG easily in 2006 too, btw. That didn't mean anything in 2010. And winning election to lower statewide offices means little for one's chances to win higher offices, as Bill Halter, Elaine Marshall, Frank Caprio, and many others can attest to.

    as for favorables, FWIW Martha Coakley's favorability ratings plummeted in the weeks leading up to the election. she's been doing a good job as AG (a position which IMO she is suited for) but to assume that these marks would hold up in a gubernatorial campaign is, in my humble opinion, to turn a blind eye to what happened in 2009/2010.

    Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 06:47:07 PM PDT

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    •  oh and... (0+ / 0-)

      if that Boston Globe poll was conducted by UNH (as their polls have been in the past), then I'm suspicious. UNH has had a lot of wacky results in the past, and in MA-Sen specifically they had that poll showing Coakley up 15 over Brown.

      Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

      by sapelcovits on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 06:51:00 PM PDT

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    •  Like I said, I don't think you (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      spiderdem, Zack from the SFV

      can expec Coakley to run that kind of campaign, or for the GOP to catch lightning in a jar like that again.

      I think Coakley's been a good Attorney General and would probably make a pretty good, independent governor. It was partly because she was a woman and because she wasn't part of the good ol' boys network that Brown won (that and good ol' boys Democrats didn't think she could lose). Even Elizabeth Warren had to struggle against those parochial institutions, but she had the benefit of strong national powers pressuring them, and a Presidential race to make their role in ginning up turnout less important.

      But right now, the gubernatorial field is wide open and Coakley actually does perform the best. I think she even relishes the chance she might get to run against Brown again and make up for her 2010 loss.

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 06:52:31 PM PDT

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    •  They'll plummet again (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Zack from the SFV

      if she acts like it's a coronation and not an election.  I don't think she will.  She'd have to be pretty dense.  The special caught her napping, and then moved so fast she could not recover.  Now she has had lots of time to think about what went wrong and how to approach things differently.  She seems smart enough to adjust under the circumstances.  And lets not forget Mr. Mayor saying "screw you, you're not one of us" and not helping her.  Maybe the machine has had some time to think about that garbage too.

      Your examples are interesting because all of those people were taken down easily in the 2010 wave while Coakley thrived, albeit against second rate competition.  I think success at winning lower statewide offices is one of the best qualifications a candidate can have.

      White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

      by spiderdem on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 06:59:57 PM PDT

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      •  Can you link to what Menino said about her? (0+ / 0-)

        I didn't pay attention to him when this election was going on.

        "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 07:02:49 PM PDT

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        •  Not what he said (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades

          but what he did.  The thought is that he turned off the faucet on the Boston turnout machine.  Thinly sourced admittedly.  There is a counter-argument that Coakley failed to reach out as well.

          White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

          by spiderdem on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 07:08:21 PM PDT

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      •  those people were taken down (0+ / 0-)

        when they ran for higher office. they had no problems winning their lower offices.

        basically the argument seems to be whether or not to give her the benefit of the doubt. perhaps I am a little cautious when it comes to someone who is responsible for one of the biggest Democratic humiliations in recent memory, especially when there is a bench otherwise. aside from the significance of MA having its first elected female governor, I see no benefit gained by electing Coakley to governor that can't be maintained with her staying on as AG.

        Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

        by sapelcovits on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 07:06:59 PM PDT

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        •  Who would you have run? (0+ / 0-)

          It's slim pickings.  Grossman was held in the mid-50's in 2010.  To me, Coakley is the 800 pound gorilla here, in spite of what happened in 2010.

          White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

          by spiderdem on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 07:09:57 PM PDT

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        •  I think it's reasonable to assume she's (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Zack from the SFV

          learned from her mistakes. It's not as if she's some unintelligent person. And that's besides the fact that she's very qualified for the position.

          I just can't imagine the DGA trying to recruit her, if they didn't think she was up for it.

          •  yeah (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            SaoMagnifico

            no such thing as unintelligent people in politics...

            Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

            by sapelcovits on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 07:18:31 PM PDT

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            •  Here we go.... (0+ / 0-)

              Your questioning her intelligence?

            •  sure (4+ / 0-)

              but what reason have we to believe she'd make the same mistakes? She starts out the race with the highest approval rating, she probably gets EMILY, and she'd have the benefit of her past experience, a full-length campaign and midterm-level turnout in what is turning out not to look like a wave year either way yet. Sounds like a good combo for Massachusetts.

              ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

              by James Allen on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 07:22:08 PM PDT

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              •  most of those factors aren't different (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                SaoMagnifico

                from 2010. she looks good on paper before the campaign begins...just like before. she's got support from women's groups...just like before. if 2014 is a wave, it's probably still a bit too early to know.

                re: turnout, the 2010 special had about 2.2 million votes cast, vs. about 2.3 million for the general. not a huge difference either way.

                as I said before what this comes down to is whether you are willing to give the benefit of the doubt to the person responsible for one of the worst elections, if not the worst election, in recent memory. perhaps I'm just risk-averse.

                Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

                by sapelcovits on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 07:29:06 PM PDT

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                •  There is merit in your position. (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  gabjoh

                  The thing that scares me the most about her was the "Why would I shake people's hands out in the cold?" thing.  That is Mitt Romney out-of-touch and possibly worse.  And that was after things had gone south.  On paper she's the best of some pretty imperfect candidates, but she has a big downside if her 2010 behavior was more of a personality trait than an isolated incident.  Like ndrwmls, though, I expect this extremely intelligent woman to be able to learn from her mistakes and do what she needs to do to win.

                  White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

                  by spiderdem on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 07:43:31 PM PDT

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                •  almost all of the factors which are possible to (3+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  gabjoh, ArkDem14, CF of Aus

                  change will be different. No election is exactly  like another one. Well, aside from the freak election of 1878 which was exactly like the elections in 1834. But no one could have predicted that there would be so many zombies.

                  ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                  by James Allen on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 08:46:11 PM PDT

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              •  Too many people here overreact badly... (5+ / 0-)

                ...to that special election.

                There was bad overreaction about Obama picking Kerry at all for SoS, God forbid we have to defend a seat in another MA special election!

                There was bad overreaction about Scott Brown running again after he just got his ass kicked.

                There was bad overreaction for awhile that Markey might lose.

                Now there's bad overreaction to Coakley running for Governor.

                I swear some people practically have PTSD from that one bad election.

                45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                by DCCyclone on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 09:26:14 PM PDT

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                •  really? n/t (0+ / 0-)

                  Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

                  by sapelcovits on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 09:36:16 PM PDT

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                •  Scott Brown didn't get his ass kicked (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  sapelcovits

                  He lost by single digits.  And if Martha Coakley were our only bench, I'd understand supporting her.  But I feel she no longer deserves the right to represent our party for higher office because of her laziness in 2009/2010.  We have plenty of other very qualified and liberal candidates.

                  20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                  politicohen.com
                  Love the class war, hate identity politics and purism
                  UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

                  by jncca on Sat Jun 29, 2013 at 12:15:36 PM PDT

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