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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Weekly Open Thread: What races are you interested in? (360 comments)

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  •  State Legislatures (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    CF of Aus, itskevin, Darth Jeff, sacman701

    My armchair analysis of possible targets for 2014.  I used the National Conference of State Legislature's StateVote page to find current composition.

    Democratic Targets

    1. NY Senate (Dems have 46%)
    2. PA Senate (46%)
    3. PA House (46%)
    4. MI House (46%)
    5. IA House (47%)
    6. NH Senate (46%)
    7. WI Senate (45%)
    8. MT Senate (46%)
    9. AZ Senate (43%)
    10. AR House (49%)

    Republican Targets

    1. WV House (Dems have 54%)
    2. KY House (55%)
    3. IA Senate (52%)
    4. NV Senate (52%)
    5. NH House (55%)
    6. OR Senate (53%)
    7. CO Senate (54%)
    8. CO House (55%)
    9. MN House (54%)
    10. NM House (54%)

    White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

    by spiderdem on Sat Jun 29, 2013 at 02:58:19 PM PDT

    •  Some context is probably needed for these. (0+ / 0-)

      Eg how many seats needed to get a majority.

      Does 46% for NY include the IDC ?

      Acting Assistant Vice Chair of the DKE international cheer squad - Absent for a few months. Got me a woman and a house now. New comments is [back]... Mark Sanford is what now ? sawolf is Stephen Wolf, & DKE have all the pres results... First!

      by CF of Aus on Sat Jun 29, 2013 at 04:47:26 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I believe NY (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        CF of Aus

        is just straight partisanship.  Yes this was just a quick and dirty.  Definitely need more information in how many seats are up and how many are needed for control.

        White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

        by spiderdem on Sat Jun 29, 2013 at 05:17:03 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  problem for Republicans (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, spiderdem, bythesea

      2010 was a good year for them, they picked up 2 of the 4 swingy senate seats up. The other two were SD-03, which is only like D+2 at best but has a strong Democratic base in Ashland, and the incumbent was caught napping but still won by the skin of his teeth, and SD-16 where they didn't even put up a challenge because though its only D+3, it is ancestrally more Democratic and they have little bench.

      There are two Republicans up in D+6 and D+7 districts in Hillsboro and Corvallis-Albany. One of them is an appointee who is too conservative and replaced a popular moderate who resigned to retire. The other had both of the nested house districts in his district picked up by Democrats last year, and he ran an uninspiring statewide race for labor commissioner and lost. There are 2-3 other races we might make plays for too. If anything, we should pick up seats.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Sat Jun 29, 2013 at 10:49:30 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  PA Senate/MI House (0+ / 0-)

      PA Senate: There are a couple of seats in SEPA that are winnable by Dems but probably not until they're open, and there's zero evidence that unpopular Republicans at the top of the ticket affect GOP State Senators in PA.  The GOP is also almost definitely going to pick up SD-38 next year after they Jim Ferlo's home in the city of Pittsburgh in with some very red suburbs.  

      MI House:  This chamber may be too gerrymandered to win this decade.  By popular vote, Dems got 350,000 more than the GOP in 2012 but the GOP won 8 more seats.  Some of the Detroit seats are going to be naturally vote sinks (Dems won some of them by over 90 points) but the rest of the state is pretty much drawn to be nearly impossible for Dems to win.  

      •  MI-House (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        lordpet8, HoosierD42

        I think it is possible for Dems to take it back in 2016. Dems only need 5 seats for a majority. 2014 may be tough, but the 2010 Republicans will be term-limited in 2016. That should make the 56th district competitive. It should also help in the 108th, 57th, 23rd, 101st, 106th if we don't manage to take those seats back in 2014. If we actually invest money in the 41st, we could win. The Dems did not target or invest in that race but it was one of the closest races in 2012. The 39th should always be a fairly competitive districts. While we have some tough defenses, the only district we will definitely lose in 2014 is the 84th.

        M, 23, School: MI-12, Home: NY-18

        by slacks on Sun Jun 30, 2013 at 05:11:16 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Don't agree (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        slacks, lordpet8

        I think the state house is easily gettable, and one we will get in 2014.  The Senate has always been a lost cause, but even with the gerrymanders, the House is still competitive.  Quite frankly, the state's been gerrymandered for so long that there really wasn't much changing the 2010 gerrymander.

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