Skip to main content

View Diary: Ask me anything about Daily Kos (and elections!) (142 comments)

Comment Preferences

  •  Question about conflicting narrative (0+ / 0-)

    1. The GOP managed to keep control of the House in 2012 despite losing the House 2-party vote by gerrymandering after the 2010 Census.

    2. Many R house members are in such deep-red seats that they fear a primary challenge more than a general election loss, and thus have to vote even more licke jackasses.

    Overall, I don't see how both these statements can simultaneously be true.  In order to gain seats through gerrymandering, you have to spread your majorities thinner.  Which would theoretically make their nominated candidates more vulnerable in a general, not less.

    Is it because Democratic votes were packed even tighter into urban districts?  Or is it simply that the rightward jerking of the R primary electorate is independant of the effect on the general election?

    First they came for the slippery-slope fallacists, and I said nothing. The End.

    by Cream Puff on Fri Jun 14, 2013 at 01:41:08 PM PDT

    •  What you say here (5+ / 0-)

      Needs to be unpacked a bit:

      In order to gain seats through gerrymandering, you have to spread your majorities thinner.  Which would theoretically make their nominated candidates more vulnerable in a general, not less.
      This is true, but GOP mapmakers (and Dem mapmakers, too) have gotten very, very clever. They have a very good sense of just how thin to spread their voters. Sometimes they go too far, yielding what people refer to as a "dummymander"—this happened in PA late last decade, and could potentially happen in VA later this decade.

      But usually that doesn't happen. And we're also dealing with a large number of seats, so there are still plenty of Republicans in dark red seats who are invulernable in a general election. That means the only way for Republicans to move up in those areas is either wait or issue a challenge in a primary.

      (And also, thanks to clever gerrymandering, the average House district is slightly more Republican, going by presidential vote, this decade than it was last decade.)

      And yes, Democrats face a tougher time because our voters tend to be wedged so tightly. A good illustration of this is the fact that Romney's best district in 2012 was TX-13, which he won 80-22. By contrast, there were almost 30 districts which went for Obama by an even greater margin.

      Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

      by David Nir on Fri Jun 14, 2013 at 01:51:18 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site