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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 6/18 (324 comments)

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  •  SUSA polls CA-52: DeMaio 48-Rep. Peters 39 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ramesh

    A lot more Obama voters going to DeMaio than the other way around: http://www.surveyusa.com/...

    I couldn't find a previous SUSA poll of CA-52.

    •  Peters is in deep trouble (0+ / 0-)

      There is no doubt about that.

    •  Their 2012 poll was very accurate (0+ / 0-)

      Had it tied, Peters won by 2.

        •  SUSA has had tons of bad polls, too, inc this one. (4+ / 0-)

          They are erratic, and some of their outliers have been wildly bad, including for U.S. House races.

          And this one is junk.  A scandal-free incumbent Democrat is not down 9 and sitting in the 30s in a Democratic-leaning district.  That doesn't happen.

          45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Tue Jun 18, 2013 at 09:55:09 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  They have very good polls at the end (0+ / 0-)

            As always it is very difficult to judge numbers at this stage when there are no results due to compare.

            "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

            by conspiracy on Tue Jun 18, 2013 at 10:13:37 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  They have very good polls at the end (0+ / 0-)

            As always it is very difficult to judge numbers at this stage when there are no results due to compare.

            "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

            by conspiracy on Tue Jun 18, 2013 at 10:13:51 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Used to say the same about Rasmussen (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              R30A, abgin

              Rasmussen, too, would have wildly GOP-friendly outliers and then break hard toward the mean in the final month.

              Of course they ended up with GOP outliers in 2008 and 2010, and then wildly bad numbers in 2012, to destroy their reputation altogether.

              But I stand by my point, you don't see a scandal-free incumbent with numbers that bad, ever, in a purple or friendly district.  I don't need other numbers to compare against.

              45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Tue Jun 18, 2013 at 10:17:28 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  Unsurprising (0+ / 0-)

      The moment DeMaio announced I chocked this up to a lean loss. This is now multiple polls showing DeMaio ahead solidly.

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Tue Jun 18, 2013 at 08:47:47 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Two polls (7+ / 0-)

        One of which was a GOP internal where no one was ever able to discern whether it was an informed ballot or not.

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        by David Nir on Tue Jun 18, 2013 at 09:11:08 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Well (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          willisorgeln

          This is much more than we often get for a House race, which are admittedly hard to poll. On the other hand, this poll confirms that last poll and both have Peters down substantially. It isn't a good position to be in at all, and even if they are leaning further right than they should be, it is a HUGE stretch to go from these polls and say "No, this race is Lean Dem/Peters" (which is the position that almost everyone here took the last time we had this discussion). There's really no way that's the case, and the most I'm willing to give to Peters is a total tossup, but even that's pushing it.

          I feel very vindicated on this.

          23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

          by wwmiv on Tue Jun 18, 2013 at 09:15:03 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  vindicated? (11+ / 0-)

            You can claim vindication on election day. The fundamentals as of now still avor Peters.

            SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

            by sacman701 on Tue Jun 18, 2013 at 09:28:09 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  SUSA's notorious (9+ / 0-)

            For having wonky results with galloping trendlines throughout the cycle, then coming in line with reality at the very end. I'm not saying that's the case here, but what I am saying is that we simply don't know what the case is here, and relying on a sketchy Tarrance Group internal plus a weird SUSA poll (Hispanics and Asians love Carl DeMaio, apparently) this far out is something I'd be very wary of.

            Also, as I've said, no one is tallying points in the comment boards here, so I'm really not sure what there is to feel vindicated about.

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            by David Nir on Tue Jun 18, 2013 at 09:34:43 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  Both these polls are junk (0+ / 0-)

            SUSA is not very good, period.

            I don't care what some pollster rankings say, the fact is SUSA has done some wildly bad work in some races.

            And this one isn't remotely plausible because a scandal-free Democrat in a Democratic-leaning district is not going to be down 9 and sitting at 39 this far out.  That's not plausible, period.

            This is exactly the same thing I said in dismissing SUSA's polls in VA-05 in 2010, when they always had Perriello down 15-20 points and sitting in the 30s.  It wasn't remotely plausible, and that was in a relatively strong GOP district.

            45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Tue Jun 18, 2013 at 09:57:43 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  You don't care what rankings say? (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              gabjoh

              Look, all pollsters have dodgy numbers. As they should given statistical variance. Pew have them. PPP have them. Quinnipiac have them. But to ignore a record in totality is foolhardy. That being said, yes, SurveyUSA have a reputation for incoherent crosstabs and sometimes they have numbers that look ridiculous come election day. But to constantly bring up those Perriello numbers is harsh given their numerous moments of top-line accuracy going back more than a decade.

              "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

              by conspiracy on Tue Jun 18, 2013 at 10:19:32 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Over the past several elections (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                DCCyclone, askew, skibum59

                I do remember SUSA having strange outliers in both directions, much more often than other national pollsters.  Not quite "throw them in the trash" numbers, but "huge grain of salt".

                •  Yup, it's more than just VA-05 (3+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  Skaje, skibum59, abgin

                  VA-05 is just the most memorably bad of many bad SUSA outliers.  They've had bad numbers a bunch.

                  And no I don't care what rankings say.  If SUSA ranks high after as many bad outliers as they've had, that just incriminates public polling broadly.  Which itself is fair, there is a lot of consensus that public polling has been very bad in recent cycles.  Even some of the most reputable public pollsters, like Quinnipiac, haven't been take-to-the-bank trustworthy.

                  45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                  by DCCyclone on Tue Jun 18, 2013 at 10:47:08 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

            •  It's a Tossup (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              DCCyclone, lordpet8

              and will likely be one until November 2014.

              20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
              politicohen.com
              Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
              UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

              by jncca on Tue Jun 18, 2013 at 01:11:28 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  Vindicated because of one public poll? (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            DCCyclone, lordpet8, abgin

            One poll 1.5 years out (a wildly implausible poll no less, as DCC has pointed out)? That seems far too self-aggrandizing.

            25, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

            by HoosierD42 on Tue Jun 18, 2013 at 11:40:47 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  I'd like to see more polling (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            abgin

            I'd call this race tossup . I just think its way too soon to make proper rating here just yet.

            Peters has only been in office for like 6 months. He has no pressing scandals that I'm aware off and I think he'll still win on the money side when it comes to the campaign.

            I'd love to see PPP go in here and do a poll.
            Without adequate and quality polling we'd have senator Rick Berg.

            “Herbert Hoover once ran on the slogan, “Two cars in every garage”. Apparently, the Republican candidate this year is running on the slogan, “Two families in every garage”.” ~Harry Truman 1948

            by lordpet8 on Tue Jun 18, 2013 at 08:24:25 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  Peters was always going to have (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, JBraden, lordpet8, abgin

      a tough re-election.

      But maybe when the campaign really gets started, things shift towards Peters. And hopefully, a strong top of the ticket for Dems helps him.

      •  Ditto. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        abgin

        The only other poll to have him ahead was Tarrance.  Also, Demaio has only downwards to go.

        "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Tue Jun 18, 2013 at 08:51:46 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Honestly, this is hard to believe... (9+ / 0-)

      I know this is a swing district, and it will be pretty competitive no matter what, but this is such a huge margin for an incumbent to be losing by, that unless Peters has done something absurd, I have trouble believing its validity. I mean I know DeMaio is somewhat interesting/likeable/"New Republican"ish, but what could possibly have put Peters in such a god-awful position like what this poll suggests?

      Am I missing something?

      •  Also, the Cook PVI (08/12) is D+2. nt (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, abgin
        •  Yes (0+ / 0-)

          D+2, moving from D+1 (04/08). But it was also only D+1 in 2012, so that suggests next to no trend over the recent history of the district at the presidential level at least.

          There also isn't room for much demographic drift (which is happening in neighboring districts, not his). Additionally, the district is substantially more Republican downballot.

          23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

          by wwmiv on Tue Jun 18, 2013 at 09:04:25 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Because the district is historically Republican (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        skibum59

        and even more so downballot where DeMaio will almost certainly play well to the socially liberal fiscally conservative very wealthy almost uniformly high turnout white audience (both Asians and Hispanics make up a small, but decent, percentage of the population) where persuasion will matter much more than a game of turnout on which DeMaio probably has the natural advantage in this sort of district.

        23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

        by wwmiv on Tue Jun 18, 2013 at 09:02:16 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yeah, but Peters is at 39%... (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DCCyclone, abgin

          That is unbelievably abysmal, you'd think it be much more competitive than this, despite historical trends. I mean if this is accurate, he has some serious turn around to do. But I highly doubt he would loose by this crazy margin, IF he lost.

          •  Yes, and I'm going to repeat myself... (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            clevelandpacha, abgin

            ...from my comments above, that this poll is complete junk precisely for that reason.

            Again, a scandal-free incumbent Democrat in a Democratic-leaning district is not down 9 and sitting at 39, 17 months out.  That never happens, period.

            45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Tue Jun 18, 2013 at 09:59:58 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah, it's weird (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, TrueBlueDem, abgin

        I know the city of San Diego is more liberal than this district, and Filner was a decent candidate.

        But SD has had GOP mayors for a while, and the outgoing GOP mayor was popular(right?) so  it's odd to me that DeMaio would be doing this well after losing the SD mayoral race by 5% just last Nov.

        That said, Peters win was a bit of a surprise to me and I think he will have a tough re-election.

    •  I find this result unlikely (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      walja, abgin

      Peters reminds me of Jim Himes. Both are moderates who defeated Republican incumbents in blue-leaning seats. Himes faced a top-tier challenge in 2010 (a sitting State Senator) and defeated him 53-47. He then defeated a nobody 59-41 last year. Especially since 2014 won't be as Republican a year as 2010, I think Peters will pull it out just like Himes did.

      (Also, interestingly, several polls in September and October 2010 put Himes down by 3 or 4 points. So I'm not too worried here.)

      (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

      by ProudNewEnglander on Tue Jun 18, 2013 at 09:17:04 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Himes is pretty liberal. (0+ / 0-)

        He's also in a bluer district and had weaker opponents.  This race will be decided by 6 points or less.

        20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

        by jncca on Tue Jun 18, 2013 at 01:17:28 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Himes is moderate (0+ / 0-)

          by Connecticut standards, and also by California standards, just as Peters is.

          This poll aside, I don't see why DeMaio is a particularly strong candidate. To me (admittedly, viewing him from the opposite side of the country) he seems to be an anti-gay-marriage sellout (considering that he himself is gay). He's also no moderate on economic issues, and seems to say crazy things. How he even got close to Filner last year is a mystery to me.

          This race will be decided by 6 points or less.
          This may be true, in which case I think Peters will win 53-47.

          (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

          by ProudNewEnglander on Tue Jun 18, 2013 at 06:14:12 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  I assume this is specific to DeMaio (0+ / 0-)

      Rather than a general sign that Obama voters are gonna stay home again?

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Tue Jun 18, 2013 at 09:24:52 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I don't believe that for a minute (6+ / 0-)

      I think these are the same guys who had Tom Perriello down by 20+ in a race he ended up losing by 5. Peters is still the favorite here. He's a noncontroversial (so far) incumbent in a district Obama won by 6 and isn't especially prone to midterm dropoff, and 2014 is not (so far) shaping up as a good year for the GOP. Peters should be fine with a good GOTV effort and a campaign emphasizing that a vote for DeMaio is a vote for GOP obstructionism and let-them-eat-cake.

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Tue Jun 18, 2013 at 09:26:57 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Rollcall's piece has a couple (6+ / 0-)

      amusing errors.

      Starts off with:

      Barack Obama won it with 52 percent and 55 percent in 2008 and 2012, respectively.
      those numbers are reversed.  And then:
      DeMaio lost his bid to become mayor of San Diego, but he did well in the areas in the 52nd District, which are more Democratic areas.
      The 52nd district is by far the more Republican area of the city.  Susan Davis' district (the 53rd) went 61% for Obama last year.

      In any case, rollcall moved this to Lean Dem and that's fine by me.  Unless you are assuming a GOP wave year, there's really no precedent for someone like Peters to get turned out just two years after dispatching an uncontroversial and relatively popular GOP incumbent in a blue-tilting seat.

      •  Also (7+ / 0-)

        I think we are getting way too accepting of uncorroborated polls.  And no, GOP internals do not corroborate anything, and you cannot just "knock off a few points" from them, you have to allow upwards of 20 points of error as we have seen the past few election cycles.  Which makes them absolutely worthless.

        DeMaio is a strong candidate for the GOP, but so was incumbent Representative Brian Bilbray.  Think about it.

        •  Bilbray > DeMaio (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          abgin

          All the comments don't mean much, especially one poll from an only semi-reliable pollster.  Bilbray is very definitely not an inferior candidate to DeMaio, so would Bilbray win in 2014?

          This race is one thing:  will the electorate be similar to the one where Peters beat Bilbray or will there be a large dropoff in Obama voters versus Romney voters in 2014?

          Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

          by tommypaine on Tue Jun 18, 2013 at 11:12:30 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  I have hard time buying it (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      abgin

      Outside of very stupid or corrupt incumbents or a Democrat in an R+12 or more, an incumbent trailing by that much is hard to believe. And Peters is well known in the area and is a moderate, so it just doesn't add up. I'd wager that Brian Bilbray isn't that much different than Carl DeMaio and if Peters could beat Bilbray, he can beat DeMaio as well.

      27, Male, CA-26, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

      by DrPhillips on Tue Jun 18, 2013 at 11:40:06 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Toplines are meaningless this far out in a House (0+ / 0-)

      race.

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