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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 6/18 (324 comments)

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  •  Rollcall's piece has a couple (6+ / 0-)

    amusing errors.

    Starts off with:

    Barack Obama won it with 52 percent and 55 percent in 2008 and 2012, respectively.
    those numbers are reversed.  And then:
    DeMaio lost his bid to become mayor of San Diego, but he did well in the areas in the 52nd District, which are more Democratic areas.
    The 52nd district is by far the more Republican area of the city.  Susan Davis' district (the 53rd) went 61% for Obama last year.

    In any case, rollcall moved this to Lean Dem and that's fine by me.  Unless you are assuming a GOP wave year, there's really no precedent for someone like Peters to get turned out just two years after dispatching an uncontroversial and relatively popular GOP incumbent in a blue-tilting seat.

    •  Also (7+ / 0-)

      I think we are getting way too accepting of uncorroborated polls.  And no, GOP internals do not corroborate anything, and you cannot just "knock off a few points" from them, you have to allow upwards of 20 points of error as we have seen the past few election cycles.  Which makes them absolutely worthless.

      DeMaio is a strong candidate for the GOP, but so was incumbent Representative Brian Bilbray.  Think about it.

      •  Bilbray > DeMaio (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        All the comments don't mean much, especially one poll from an only semi-reliable pollster.  Bilbray is very definitely not an inferior candidate to DeMaio, so would Bilbray win in 2014?

        This race is one thing:  will the electorate be similar to the one where Peters beat Bilbray or will there be a large dropoff in Obama voters versus Romney voters in 2014?

        Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

        by tommypaine on Tue Jun 18, 2013 at 11:12:30 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

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