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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 6/18 (324 comments)

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  •  Both these polls are junk (0+ / 0-)

    SUSA is not very good, period.

    I don't care what some pollster rankings say, the fact is SUSA has done some wildly bad work in some races.

    And this one isn't remotely plausible because a scandal-free Democrat in a Democratic-leaning district is not going to be down 9 and sitting at 39 this far out.  That's not plausible, period.

    This is exactly the same thing I said in dismissing SUSA's polls in VA-05 in 2010, when they always had Perriello down 15-20 points and sitting in the 30s.  It wasn't remotely plausible, and that was in a relatively strong GOP district.

    45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Tue Jun 18, 2013 at 09:57:43 AM PDT

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    •  You don't care what rankings say? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      Look, all pollsters have dodgy numbers. As they should given statistical variance. Pew have them. PPP have them. Quinnipiac have them. But to ignore a record in totality is foolhardy. That being said, yes, SurveyUSA have a reputation for incoherent crosstabs and sometimes they have numbers that look ridiculous come election day. But to constantly bring up those Perriello numbers is harsh given their numerous moments of top-line accuracy going back more than a decade.

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Tue Jun 18, 2013 at 10:19:32 AM PDT

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      •  Over the past several elections (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone, askew, skibum59

        I do remember SUSA having strange outliers in both directions, much more often than other national pollsters.  Not quite "throw them in the trash" numbers, but "huge grain of salt".

        •  Yup, it's more than just VA-05 (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Skaje, skibum59, abgin

          VA-05 is just the most memorably bad of many bad SUSA outliers.  They've had bad numbers a bunch.

          And no I don't care what rankings say.  If SUSA ranks high after as many bad outliers as they've had, that just incriminates public polling broadly.  Which itself is fair, there is a lot of consensus that public polling has been very bad in recent cycles.  Even some of the most reputable public pollsters, like Quinnipiac, haven't been take-to-the-bank trustworthy.

          45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Tue Jun 18, 2013 at 10:47:08 AM PDT

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    •  It's a Tossup (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone, lordpet8

      and will likely be one until November 2014.

      20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

      by jncca on Tue Jun 18, 2013 at 01:11:28 PM PDT

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