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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 6/18 (324 comments)

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  •  I'd say (1+ / 0-)
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    That was more a function of increased black turnout thanks to Obama though, and not a more general blue trend, no?

    •  No (1+ / 0-)
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      Black turnout has historically been increasing anyway, even without Obama. Obama simply provided an extra push to increased turnout. There was no ground game in Louisiana, so there wasn't a push there to increase black turnout. And that isn't even considering that there wasn't any of that in 2008 either. I very much doubt that the increase in Louisiana was driven by an Obama phenomenon.

      More likely is that the state really is trending back to us on the growth of African Americans (who I believe are actually growing as a share) and by the growth of white artistic liberals in New Orleans (though there is doubt on this one as well, as they might be leaving New Orleans as they have kids according to some prognosticators)..

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Tue Jun 18, 2013 at 12:03:29 PM PDT

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      •  There was some groundgame in 2008 (0+ / 0-)

        Obama had some offices here that coordinated with the Landrieu campaign.  I made a lot of calls for both candidates at the same time.  It wasn't heavy but there seemed to be a small trace of optimism we could win or at least take Landrieu to victory.  

        In 2012 you're right.  OFA was active in Louisiana but was working to coordinate efforts into other states.  There was really none of the "Hey, maybe we can win Louisiana if we get lucky" spirit there was in 2008.  Pretty much everything was devoted to winning Florida that year and rightly so.  

        23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

        by Jeff Singer on Tue Jun 18, 2013 at 01:20:57 PM PDT

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        •  This just bolsters the trend more I think (1+ / 0-)
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          James Allen

          If Obama could improve in Louisiana over 2008 in 2012 while also moving from minimal presence to no real presence (OFA had Texas offices that also called into Florida and Colorado, etc.) then that to me says that Louisiana actually is trending pretty well.

          23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

          by wwmiv on Tue Jun 18, 2013 at 01:58:37 PM PDT

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          •  You are only looking at one cycle (1+ / 0-)
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            Compare 2004-2008, when the state went from Bush +15 to McCain +19.  Or 2000, when Bush only won the state by 8 points.  And 1996, when Clinton won it by 12.

            The point is, the state has trended red in every election since 1996 up until last year when it gave a few points back.  That doesn't mean the state is trending blue any more than Michigan is trending red.  We have to look at the long-term trends, and those are awful for us in Louisiana as our base shrinks and shrinks to practically just African-Americans.

            •  Although true (1+ / 0-)
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              There are green shoots here that are easily taken advantage of. African Americans are also growing as a share, aren't they, as they return back after Katrina? The artistic white bloc votes liberally and are growing as a share as well. I don't think it is possible to shrink further among our white coalition, as that practically hit bottom in '08. I.E. there's only room to grow now.

              23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

              by wwmiv on Tue Jun 18, 2013 at 02:21:56 PM PDT

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      •  Also Katrina (0+ / 0-)

        Many returned after leaving the state for a few years following the hurricane.

        20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

        by jncca on Tue Jun 18, 2013 at 01:29:02 PM PDT

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      •  Agreed (0+ / 0-)

        I think there is a decent case to be made that Democrats in the state hit rock bottom in 2008/10 and have seen significant improvements in the past few years. I attribute this to four factors:

        1. Increased black turnout: Largely due to Obama being president and the LA Democratic Party's increased focus on AAs in the state (the only good thing they've done IMO).

        2. Population growth from more liberal out-of-staters: New Orleans is the fastest growing city with more than 100k people in the country. In 5 years, the city grew a staggering 27%. While it is still below pre-Katrina levels, a lot of the growth is among newcomers from the Northeast and West Coast who tend to be white, high turnout voters, young and liberal. I'd also say you can find increases in this demo group in Baton Rouge, Shreveport and Lafayette as well.

        3. Jindal. He's a moron, he's hated by just about every political group in the state, and he's killing the GOP brand, especially among conservadems in north La and Acadiana who have supplied the GOP's margin of victory in the state.

        4. The NOLA suburbs have seen a shift towards the Democratic Party that I'd attribute largely to one person: Mitch Landrieu. Mitch is probably one of the most capable executives in government right now at any level. He has managed the city next to flawlessly these last 3.5 years and has huge levels of support from white voters both in the city and surrounding region. If he ran for statewide office, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if he garnered +55% of the vote in Jefferson & Plaquemines Parishes, +60% in St. Bernard Parish and +40% in St. Tammany Parish.

        23, Male, LA-02, TX-08 (originally), SSP: sschmi4

        by Stephen Schmitz on Tue Jun 18, 2013 at 09:07:26 PM PDT

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