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View Diary: McConnell promises to end filibuster if made majority leader (205 comments)

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  •  Not very likely. (1+ / 0-)
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    JamieG from Md

    Sorry -- you really don't know what you're talking about.  

    First:  which Republican is a prohibitive favorite over likely Democratic candidates for President?  Rubio?  Rand Paul?  Cruz?  Jeb Freakin' Bush??  It won't be Chris Christie -- the right wing of the party will reject him.  The Republicans are up against a pretty solid block of electoral votes and an electoral map that is structurally tilted against them for President.  

    Overall -- while a presidential race still 3-1/2 years away is impossible to predict -- I like the odds for either Hillary Clinton or (if she doesn't run) Joe Biden.  But I think anyone else on the D side comes with a pretty significant edge.  

    Second:  The Senate class of 2010 is up for reelection in 2016.  Republicans elected from traditionally blue states like Illinois, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and blue trending states like New Hampshire and Ohio will be up for reelection.  Republicans are defending 23 seats in a presidential turnout year.  If I were at the RSCC I'd be pretty worried.  

    And Democrats are vulnerable where?  Oregon, Washington and California?  Reid in Nevada?  Colorado?  The Republicans won all the purple states in 2010 and in 2016 they'll have to defend them all.  

    So here's my prediction for 2016.  If the Democrats hold the Senate in 2014 (and I think they will) they'll have the Senate and the White House through at least 2018.  That's assuming we work for it and vote rather than blubbering.  

    •  Joe Biden would get his ass STOMPED (0+ / 0-)

      i love the guy, but he's a joke as a presidential candidate.  nobody loves this administration.  only goodwill from this administration could carry Biden enough to be even competative, but it still wouldn't be enough for him to win.  he's a million years old and he's most famous in this country for saying 'big fucking deal'.  please.

      Hillary isn't going to run.  unless she is some kind of glutton for punishment.  which, she may be.  but she still doesn't bring in the Obama voters, so, she's going to come up short.   women already vote, so, there's no new voters to make up for the loss of Obama voters.

      be honest with yourself.  you know that everyone wants hillary to run, because there isn't anyone else with the stature to run.

      i hope she doesn't run.  if she runs, she might win and then she'll get to listen to you all talk about her like she's shit.

      Democrats don't deserve good candidates.  they treat their winners like shit.

      •  Try harder. (1+ / 0-)
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        JamieG from Md

        I think there are a lot of tells that Hillary Clinton is considering a run, though it's not concluded.  Bill's prominence is one.  Palling around with Christie seems suspicious to me.  

        But in any case -- 3+ years out from 1992, nobody thought Bill Clinton was going to be the next Democratic president beside him and a fairly small group of supporters.  There are lots of good candidates from the Democratic party who are on the sidelines until Nov 2014, and maybe beyond if Hillary is cagey about her future plans.  But I think she'll either be in or out pretty quickly after the midterm election.  If she's not going to run she'll tell us so others can get in gear.  

        Personally I want Hillary to run because I think she's uniquely qualified to be president and would be an historic figure.  But if she doesn't run, there are many others who could come in, with the same structural advantages in the electoral college.  Don't believe the horserace bullshit that everyone found fascinating on 2012 -- Obama was ahead consistently.  And it wasn't because Romney was a weak opponent -- just the opposite.  He was the strongest opponent the Republicans could have nominated, and he the crap kicked out of him.  And next time I don't think the right is going to allow the party to nominate someone who is not a true believer.  

        You failed to make a credible argument for your position.  You lose.  

      •  so Joe Biden is too old (0+ / 0-)

        but Hillary isn't? Do you even follow politics?

        "Against the assault of laughter, nothing can stand." - Mark Twain

        by GrimReefa on Wed Jun 26, 2013 at 08:40:49 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  I would go further (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Headlight, JamieG from Md

      with your analysis.

      Starting in 2016 for the next 6 years, republicans are on the defense in the Senate, in that they will have more seats coming up for election than Democrats do. So its beyond 2018, you are looking at a Democrat majority in the Senate until easily 2022. (2014 is there last reasonable attempt at taking the Senate. 2012 was their best year, and they failed miserably, actually losing seats).

      The Senate picture starts to look even worse because of the intra party civil war between the tea party and the establishment. Having to finance primaries and fight off extreme right wing candidates that have no chance of winning in a general is an additional drag on their chances, and why Rove is worried enough that he is putting money behind defeating tea partiers.

      The general "wisdom" is that the House is still out of reach for the Dems, but if you start to dig down a bit into what's required (17 seats have to be flipped)and factor in that the majority of seats considered "in play" or "lightly leaning" one way or the other, you find that most of those districts are districts where immigration reform is a serious consideration. Currently the GOP seems bound and determined to lose on that issue, in order to protect their safe districts...an absurd strategy. Add in 2014 will see the implementation of the ACA, and if that goes even marginally well, the Dems could quite possibly take back the House.

      Of course, it is a midterm election in Obama's 2nd term, and the NSA debate is clouding predictions this far out, but given that the GOP has pretty much cast away their fabled outreach program and are going to cater to their deeply red districts, they could very easily find themselves unable to compete outside of their safety zone.

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